Rising poverty, falling inflation: the first 100 days of the new Argentine president Javier Milei are a cause for hope and concern at the same time. The Social Observatory of the Catholic University (UCA) recorded an increase in poverty in Argentina. The already high poverty level of around 45 percent increased again to 57 percent. The children's aid organization Unicef ​​​​expects child and youth poverty to increase from 62 to 70 percent. This is probably the biggest problem of the new libertarian-conservative government: growing social tensions make it vulnerable.

First successes of financial policy

On the other hand, there are initial successes in terms of financial policy. Inflation fell from around 25 percent in December to around 20 percent in January to 13.2 percent in February. The Perfil portal (an Argentine national weekly) recently predicted a further reduction to around seven percent by July. The “sharp slowdown” in inflation is “the result of the national government's work to impose strict budget discipline,” Milei said, commenting on the event. But even 13.2 percent is a hard blow for the population.

“The most important success is the fall in inflation, which so far has exceeded expectations,” Buenos Aires-based economic advisor Carl Moses says in an interview with DW. “Despite the severe recession, the prices of Argentine stocks and bonds have increased considerably. This is in line with the mood of the population, which is better than would be expected given the dramatic deterioration of the economic and social situation “

Reforms are stalled

Milei has so far failed to push through his ambitious economic reforms. Some bitter defeats in Congress (where Milei's La Liberdad Avanza party does not have a majority) and in the Senate are causing reform projects to stall, says Moisés: “So far, however, there are no real reforms that represent a lasting improvement. The short-term balance of public finances, “of which the government is so proud, has until now been based on the real devaluation of pensions and salaries and other temporary measures that cannot be sustained in the long term.”

In an interview with DW, economist Agustín Etchebarne of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation of Buenos Aires now calls for the reforms to be implemented: “This process of adjustment and economic transformation is essential to lay the foundations for sustainable growth and long-term stability. term. Come on: “We hope the economy recovers in the second half of the year.”

Harsh austerity measures

Milei's government is trying to rehabilitate the heavily indebted state budget inherited from previous governments with harsh austerity measures. The state news agency TELAM, which according to official information has losses, is going to close and at Radio Nacional countless contracts have not been renewed. State institutions were closed and funding to provincial governments was cut.

“There is no money,” is how Milei described the state of the state treasury at the beginning of his term. Despite the harsh measures and the rising poverty rate, support for Milei is comparatively stable, although the president has recently lost some points in the polls. So far, Milei has benefited from announcing a “tough first year” and delivering on his promise. A part of the population is convinced that these sacrifices are worth it, the other half views the developments with great concern.

Social organizations criticize

The harsh criticism of the government's attitude comes from the field of social organizations and the opposition. The Catholic Church in Pope Francis' home country is focusing on those in need. Priests for the poor report that the number of people asking for help to feed the poor has increased markedly. The poor, Spanish-born priest “Paco” Olveira accuses Milei of acting selectively against social movements traditionally closely linked to the Peronism he has long ruled:

“The government's idea is to destroy all community, social and political organizations.” Emilio Pérsico, of the Peronist Evita movement, suspects that the presidency could end prematurely given the increase in poverty: “It would be a miracle if Javier Milei lasted four years.”

Author: Tobias Buyer (from Rio de Janeiro)