Portugal's new conservative Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, wants to lead a minority government. So far, he has only been backed by the president's support.
Antonio Costa (right) receives Luís Montenegro at a meeting at the Sao Bento Palace in Lisbon on March 27, 2024 Photo: Armando Franca/ap
MADRID taz | Portugal will have a conservative prime minister for the first time in eight years. The main candidate of the right-wing Democratic Alliance (AD) electoral alliance, Luís Montenegro, and his 17-member cabinet were due to be sworn in on Tuesday night.
The AD won the Portuguese parliamentary elections on March 10 by a narrow margin with 28.8 percent. However, Montenegro only has 80 of the 230 seats in parliament and is therefore far from having a majority in the Assembly of the Republic.
Montenegro will lead a minority government. The only alternative would be a coalition with the far-right Chega (“Basta”) party. The formation around former television presenter André Ventura has 50 seats. But Ventura only wants to permanently support Montenegro if he can sit at the cabinet table. Montenegro has so far strictly rejected such a formal coalition.
The price: a fundamental opposition of the extreme right. What this means was already demonstrated in the comings and goings during the formation of the parliamentary presidium last week. This was only successful on the second attempt, after which the Socialists (PS), who have 78 seats, helped Montenegro out of the problem.
Socialists do not want to permanently support Montenegro
AD and PS agreed on rotation in the position of president of parliament. The first two years go to the AD, the next two to the PS, if there is a four-year legislative period. The leader of the Socialists, Pedro Nuno Santos, insists that he will not be available to provide long-term support to Montenegro or even for a grand coalition.
The 51-year-old Montenegrin lawyer has been a member of the Portuguese Parliament since 2002. Since 2022 he has been president of the conservative Social Democratic Party (PSD), which represents the core of the AD alliance.
In his cabinet there are several experienced politicians from the conservative ranks. Former MEP Paulo Rangel will be the Minister of Foreign Affairs. The Ministry of Finance will in the future be directed by Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, until now leader of the PSD parliamentary group. Pedro Reis, former head of the Export and Foreign Investment Promotion Authority, will become Minister of Economy. Seven of the 17 ministerial positions are for women, including Judge Margarita Blasco as Minister of the Interior.
Before Montenegro's cabinet is sworn in, there is no vote of confidence in parliament, as is necessary in Germany or Austria. Montenegro takes the oath because President Marcel Rebelo de Sousa appointed him.
An agreement is not ruled out
So things won't get really serious until Thursday of next week. Then Montenegro must present his government program to parliament and unite the majority behind him. Montenegro repeatedly stated that he hoped the socialists would let him govern. In fact, they could reach an agreement, in exchange for social measures in the government program. This would mean that the head of AD would actually be in office.
But then comes everyday government life. Montenegro must negotiate its own majority for each measure or govern by decree. The latter is possible, but is subject to a control mechanism by Parliament. If only 10 of the 230 members demand a debate to evaluate the measure, it must be held. Chega has 50 MPs and can easily enforce this.
Things will finally get really serious for Montenegro with the budget debate in the fall. He will then have to approach the socialists again if he does not want to join forces with Chega. Once again, social measures could make this pact possible. The only certainty is that Montenegro will be in power for at least six months. According to the Constitution, President Rebelo de Sousa cannot call new elections until then.