KJust before the European Council this Thursday and Friday, it was not yet clear on Tuesday what signals the heads of state and government would give regarding the start of accession negotiations with Bosnia-Hercegovina as proposed by the EU Commission. Diplomats said the Netherlands, France and Denmark showed the most restraint.

Reference was made in particular to a decision pending in the Dutch parliament, to which the incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte would then be bound. Everything here depended on how Pieter Omtzigt's New Social Contract party would behave.

This time Hungary is not a problem

Two scenarios would be possible: Either accession negotiations can only be opened once Bosnia-Hercegovina has implemented all the reforms that the EU Commission has assigned to the country. Or the member states agree that accession negotiations will be opened, but the negotiating mandate can only be decided once Bosnia-Hercegovina has implemented all the reforms.

This is what the heads of state and government did with Ukraine and Moldova in December. At that time, a decision was only possible because Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán left the room before the vote. Hungary is not a problem in Bosnia-Hercegovina. Budapest has long been pushing to admit all Western Balkan states. It also agrees with the positive assessment of the country by the EU Commission.

France is dissatisfied

French State Secretary for Europe Jean-Noël Barrot expressed more skepticism on Tuesday. “In our assessment, the reforms that Bosnia-Hercegovina has undertaken since December are limited, too limited,” Barrot said in Brussels. The government must therefore be “encouraged to make further efforts, but give a positive signal in the short term, while at the same time providing strong incentives to strengthen negotiations in due course”. This could be understood as support for an approach similar to that in Ukraine.

On Thursday, the European Council will also discuss the negotiating mandates for Ukraine and Moldova that the EU Commission presented last week. A quick decision cannot be expected here. The Hungarian government insists on further reforms to the minority rights of the Hungarian-speaking population in Ukraine, even though the EU Commission certified that Kiev had met all the conditions.

According to diplomats, other states are hiding behind this blockade stance. France in particular has no interest in opening negotiations before the European elections. Macron had reportedly already explored a possible compromise with Orbán in December, according to which negotiations should not open until after the European elections. The European Council is now struggling to find a way to convene the first intergovernmental conference “under the Belgian Presidency”. This will last another three weeks after the European elections.