Celtics vs. odds Heat, prediction: 2023 NBA Eastern Conference final picks, best Game 3 bets by model tested

He Miami Heat look to take an even more commanding lead in the 2023 Eastern Conference finals on Sunday night. Directed by jimmy butlerthe Heat won back-to-back games at TD Garden against the boston celtics, taking a 2-0 lead. Game 3 moves to the Kaseya Center in Miami, with the Heat aiming to continue their recent stellar play. The Celtics bring a clean injury report, while Miami continues to operate without tyler hero (hand and Victor Oladipo (knee).

Kickoff is at 8:30 pm ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Celtics as 4.5-point favorites, while the plus/minus, or total number of points Vegas thinks they’ll score, is 214 in the latest Celtics-Heat odds. Before choosing between the Heat and the Celtics, you should view NBA playoff predictions and betting tips from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine projection model simulates each nba played 10,000 times and has returned over $10,000 in winnings for players of $100 in their best rating NBA picks during the last four seasons or more. The model entered the 2023 conference finals nba playoffs with an astonishing 72-38 all over the NBA’s highest-valued picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone who follows him has seen huge gains.

Now, the model has set her sights on Heat vs. Celtics and just blacked out their NBA playoff picks and predictions. Can head over to SportsLine now for model selections. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:

• Celtics vs. Heat spread: Celtics -4.5
• Celtics vs. Heat plus/minus: 214 points
• Celtics money line vs. Heat: Celtics -178, Heat +150
• BOS: Celtics are 26-21 against the spread in road games
• MIA: Heat are 19-27-2 against the spread in home games
• Celtics picks vs. Heat: See selections on SportsLine

featured game | Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston’s offense remains potent in a large sample size. The Celtics are scoring nearly 1.18 points per possession in the playoffs after finishing second in the NBA in offensive efficiency during the regular season. Boston leads the postseason with 60.6% true shooting, including 48.8% from the field and 38.6% from 3-point range. The Celtics are also putting pressure on the rim against the Heat, averaging 26.5 free throw attempts and 55.0 points in the paint per game in the series. Boston is averaging nearly twice as many assists (24.7 per game) as turnovers (12.4 per game) during the playoff stretch.

On defense, Boston was one of the top five teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency, defensive rebound rate, assist avoidance, shot on opponent, and free throw avoidance during the regular season. The Celtics are still performing at solid levels in the playoffs, especially when it comes to allowing just 42.1 points in the paint, 19.3 free throw attempts, and 22.5 assists per game to opponents. Boston also has a stellar road record, including going 4-2 in playoff games away from the TD Garden. See which team to choose here.

Why the heat can cover

Miami’s defense is tremendous, with Erik Spoelstra serving as the unit’s architect off the bench. The Heat posted top-tier metrics during the regular season, including top-five marks in free throw avoidance, defensive rebound rate, turnover creation, fast-break points allowed and points allowed in the paint. During the playoffs, Miami is giving up just 111.6 points per 100 possessions, and opponents are shooting just 33.5% from 3-point range. The Heat are also allowing just 22.5 assists per playoff game, and Miami is generating a 15.5% turnover of defensive possessions against Boston.

On the other hand, the Heat also stand out on the road to a 10-3 record in the playoffs and a +5.0 net rating in postseason games. Miami is scoring over 1.21 points per possession in the series against Boston, grabbing 34.4% of available offensive rebounds. The Heat are also shooting 43.9% from 3-point range and 49.7% from the field against the Celtics, and Miami is averaging just 12.5 turnovers per game in the playoffs. See which team to choose here.

How to make Heat vs. Celtics

SportsLine’s model leans toward total points, projecting a combined 221 points. The model also says that one side of differential impacts in more than 50% of the simulations. You can only see the model’s NBA playoff picks on SportsLine.

So who wins Celtics vs. Heat, and which side of the spread does he hit in more than 50% of the simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Celtics need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that is 72-38 in the best picks in the NBA this seasonand find out.