Celtics vs. Prediction Heat, odds: 2023 NBA Eastern Conference final picks, best Game 5 bets by model tested

Game 5 of the 2023 Eastern Conference finals is scheduled for Thursday night in prime time. He boston celtics shelter the Miami Heat at TD Garden, with the Celtics facing elimination. Boston trails 3-1 in the best-of-seven series, including two home losses. The Heat can advance to the 2023 NBA Finals with a win, though the Celtics responded well in a double-digit victory in Game 4 on Tuesday. gabe vincent (ankle) is listed as questionable to play in Miami.

Kickoff is at 8:30 pm ET in Boston. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the hometown favorite by 8.5 points, while the plus/minus, or total number of points Vegas thinks they’ll score, is 215.5 in the latest Heat-Celtics odds. Before choosing between the Celtics and the Heat, you should view NBA playoff predictions and betting tips from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine projection model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $10,000 in winnings for $100 players in its highest ranking. NBA picks during the last four seasons or more. The model entered the 2023 NBA playoff conference finals with an astonishing 72-38 all-time top-rated pick in the NBA this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone who follows him has seen huge gains.

Now, the model has set her sights on Heat vs. Celtics and just blacked out their NBA playoff picks and predictions. Can head over to SportsLine now for model selections. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:

• Celtics vs. Heat spread: Celtics -8.5
• Celtics vs. Heat plus/minus: 215.5 points
• Celtics money line vs. Heat: Celtics -320, Heat +250
• MIA: Heat are 21-26-1 against the spread in road games
• BOS: Celtics are 28-22 against the spread in home games
• Celtics picks vs. Heat: See selections on SportsLine

featured game | Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

Why the heat can cover

Miami’s defense has put continuous pressure on Boston throughout the series, leading to a 3-1 lead. The Heat are giving up less than 1.12 points per possession in the postseason and holding the Celtics’ shooting efficiency (57.7%) well below their established levels. Miami leads the playoffs averaging 19.9 points per game thanks to turnovers created, and opponents are averaging just 45.3 points in the paint per game.

on the offensive, jimmy butler leads the way with 29.9 points on 50.5% shooting in the playoffs, and Miami is scoring over 1.19 points per possession in the series against Boston. That includes 61.6% true shooting and 50% shooting from the field against the Celtics, with the Heat committing just 12.5 turnovers per game in the postseason. See which team to choose here.

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston’s Game 4 recipe reflected its season-long excellence in many ways. The Celtics scored 1.22 points per possession against the Heat on Tuesday, shooting 51% from the field and 40% from 3-point range. Boston also generated 28 assists with just 10 turnovers, and the Celtics were able to create and convert efficient looks throughout the game. The Celtics finished in the top three in the NBA in offensive efficiency (117.3 points per 100 possessions) during the regular season, and Boston is scoring 1.17 points per possession in the playoffs.

The Celtics also lead the postseason with a 60.0% true shooting mark, and Boston has more than twice as many assists (24.9 per game) as turnovers (12.4 per game) in playoff games. Boston has a couple of legitimate stars in jayson tatum and jaylen brown, who averaged more than 26 points per game in the regular season. Additionally, the Celtics held the Heat to just 1.05 points per possession on 8-of-32 shooting from 3-point range on defense in Game 4. See which team to choose here.

How to make Celtics vs. Heat

The SportsLine model leans over the total, projecting a combined 220 points. The model also says that one side of differential impacts in more than 50% of the simulations. You can only see the model’s NBA playoff picks on SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics-Heat gap you should jump on Thursday, all from the model that’s 72-38 on their highest-rated NBA picks this season.and find out.