College Football Playoff Projections: Week 12 Implications

The College Football Playoff race remains reasonably wide open: Eight teams have at least a 23% chance of making the playoffs, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor — but things are starting to become clearer as the model leans more on the selection committee weekday rankings.

There are now five teams with at least a 50% chance of making the CFP: Georgia, Florida State, Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon. Alabama, Texas and Washington have a 20% to 30% chance of getting in.

Is Week 12 a must-win for the Huskies?

Pac-12 leader Washington (10-0, 7-0) has a key game this week on the road at Oregon State (8-2, 5-2).

Here are the Huskies’ chances of making the CFP depending on Saturday’s result:

Washington with a victory: 32%
Washington with a loss: 14%

Washington has the fifth-toughest schedule.

Georgia’s Tennessee Test

The Allstate Playoff Predictor has finally started to appear in Georgia, but the Bulldogs still have one major regular season test left: at Tennessee this week.

Here are the Bulldogs’ chances of making the CFP depending on Saturday’s result:

Georgia with a victory: 79%
Georgia with a loss: 45%

If Georgia won in the regular season but lost to Alabama in the conference championship game, the Bulldogs would still have a 64% chance of making the CFP.

Good, but not great, in part because Alabama could take Georgia’s spot. Georgia has the toughest remaining schedule in part because of that conference championship matchup.