Dhe Upper Austrian Wels is a town with around 65,000 inhabitants characterized by traditional industry. Politically, it stands out because of its “blue” mayor. Andreas Rabl from the right-wing FPÖ managed to win a majority in the former “red” stronghold in 2015 and defend it in 2021. The pragmatic and moderate Rabl was and is the head of the town hall in the largest city where an FPÖ politician is at the top. This invites all sorts of symbolism.
In 2017, the then chairman of the SPÖ and Federal Chancellor Christian Kern chose the Wels exhibition hall as the location for a programmatic departure speech: From there, the reconquista against the FPÖ was supposed to begin, so to speak, which disputed the role of the social democrats as the workers' party. The fact that Kern's departure seven years ago failed because he was defeated in the same year by the even more determined Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) did not stop the current chancellor and chairman of the Christian Democratic ÖVP, Karl Nehammer, from sharing the same pavement for a keynote speech with one to select a similar strategic goal. His most important message for the 2024 election year was for FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl, even if he did not mention him by name: “It will be the decision between him and me as Chancellor of Austria.”
Nehammer or a “People’s Chancellor” Kickl?
What will be crucial for the ÖVP will be whether it manages to credibly present this alternative to voters before this year's National Council elections. The FPÖ has been leading the field in the polls for two years. Behind them follow – in this order – SPÖ and ÖVP. Everyone was mostly in the corridor between 20 and 30 percent, the FPÖ at the upper end, the ÖVP at the lower end. Kickl has therefore been claiming for some time that he will move into the Chancellery at Vienna's Ballhausplatz after the election, as he likes to put it, as “People's Chancellor”. Following a tried-and-tested FPÖ concept, he plays with this term in an ambiguous, but understood by everyone, Nazi terminology.
With these provocations, Kickl has managed to ensure that the domestic political debate largely revolves around him. This also applies to international attention. Nehammer, who replaced Kurz as ÖVP chairman in 2021 because of chat affairs and public prosecutor's investigations, may have realized that he can hardly match his effective presence.
Role model Van der Bellen
His electoral heights are out of reach for him, the only question is how severe the losses will be. So he tries to reverse Kickl's polarization to his advantage. If 30 percent were actually for the FPÖ, 70 percent would still be against them. If Nehammer were to appear as the figure who prevents a Chancellor Kickl, then he could attract tactical voters who want this above all else.
Former Green Party leader Alexander Van der Bellen did this twice when he won against FPÖ candidates in two federal presidential elections. Although the political majority in Austria shows a predominance of the center-right in virtually all elections for 40 years, many middle-class voters do not want to see an FPÖ man at the top. Nehammer is obviously aiming for this Van der Bellen majority.
The ÖVP as a bulwark
As a means to this end, however, he does not seek to warm the hearts of green or red supporters with his substantive positions. This is often recommended to the ÖVP in the Austrian media, be it in comments or guest contributions. However, mostly from people who would never think of voting for the ÖVP themselves. Nehammer and his strategic advisors try to do it the other way around. The terms he chose are aimed at the traditional ÖVP clientele, farmers, petty bourgeois and entrepreneurs. The aim is not to win urban cosmopolitan citizens, but rather to limit the outflow to the FPÖ as far as possible. An ÖVP stabilized in this way should then appear as a bulwark against Kickl.
The keywords for his “Austria plan” have already been played in bits and pieces in the media over the past week. In the summary of the ÖVP general secretary they are: regulated legal immigration into the labor market instead of illegal migration into the asylum system, adaptation to the Austrian dominant culture for harmonious coexistence, more property for young families “and of course also lower taxes”. Targeted provocations secured attention, such as the headline of a “gender ban”. In concrete terms, it didn't sound so wild: public administration should, as the Spelling Commission recommends, avoid using asterisks and similar symbols. And at universities it should at least not be considered disadvantageous if you submit texts without this.
Whether the calculation works depends on several factors. On the one hand, whether the SPÖ will continue to tread water under its chairman Andreas Babler, who was elected in 2023, or whether it will even be weakened by competition on the left – such as the communist KPÖ and the anarcho-left-liberal Beer Party. As a second candidate, Nehammer could then try to stay on Ballhausplatz as chancellor of an ÖVP-SPÖ coalition (“it could no longer be called big”). Pressure against the SPÖ would be the gap that he leaves open by only completely ruling out an alliance with Kickl, but not with a more pragmatic FPÖ. Perhaps Wels was a symbolic choice of location for his speech in this respect.