On Sunday, a drone killed US soldiers for the first time in Jordan. Analyst Amer al-Sabaileh explains why an American response in Syria is obvious.
US and Jordanian tanks during an exercise in Jordan in 2022 Photo: Alaa Al Sukhni/Reuters
Three American soldiers were killed in a drone strike in Jordan on Sunday and more than 34 were wounded. The attack took place at the US military position Tower 22. The US blames the Iran-aligned Kataib Hezbollah militia in Iraq. Iran itself denies any involvement.
taz: Mr. al-Sabaileh, what role do American troops play in Jordan?
Amer al-Sabaileh: The United States maintains military bases and troops in Jordan. This has to do with the training of Jordanian units, joint operations, etc. The Torre 22 military base, along with the al-Tanf military base in Syria, is more dedicated to activities on Syrian soil. One part is directed against Daesh. (“Islamic State”, editor). According to my information, it is more about surveillance and support for the militias fighting against Daesh. So there is a difference between Tower 22 and other US bases in Jordan.
45 years old, comes from Jordan and received his PhD from the University of Pisa, Italy. She writes for Jordanian and international media and runs the Triage Duepuntozero think tank. Her focus is on terrorism, security and international relations.
There have been more than 150 attacks against US troops in Syria or Iraq only since the beginning of the conflict in Gaza. However, the fact that American soldiers are being attacked on Jordanian soil is new.
This was one of the biggest attacks in recent times. It was the first time since Oct. 7 that American soldiers were killed in a direct attack. What is also new is that troops in Jordan have been attacked, even if the location is not far from other bases that have been attacked in the past. However, symbolically it was a geographical expansion. Therefore, we should expect a different kind of response from the United States.
Which?
The attack occurs at a time when the election campaign has begun in the United States. Criticism from the Republican side could increase, and the Biden administration could pay the price if his response is not strong or clear enough.
Biden said the United States is not seeking war with Iran.
The United States does not want to, but little by little they are encouraged to do so. Look at what is happening in the Red Sea. Ultimately, this has become a global problem that is putting shipping companies and trade at risk. Little by little we are observing how the United States is no longer a guarantor against the extension of the war, but is becoming a target. In my opinion, there should be another type of attack that sends a clear and fair message to Iran. Otherwise, this American government will lose and attacks on Americans will increase.
What are you referring to specifically? More sanctions against Iran?
This US administration is obsessed with the issue of sanctions, but they are not working. If we want to significantly weaken Iran and stabilize the region, then militias and their weapons must no longer exist in the future. There are hardly any armed militias in the region that do not have ties to Iran. Sometimes internal disputes within groups can be a starting point.
What impact could the attack in Jordan have on the region's crises?
The region is entering a second phase of the conflict: the degradation of the war in Gaza and the opening of new fronts. If this model works (West Bank, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq) I believe it will lead to a new type of operation. If there is an attack on the Jordanian border, the response is in Syria, Iraq or Lebanon. Now we face the seven open fronts that Israel spoke of. And the United States is gradually being dragged into this war.
Is a US counterattack in Iraq likely?
Making Iraq a target could be critical at this time because it would weaken the Iraqi prime minister who is currently mediating. Yesterday he managed to get Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq to stop its military activities against the Americans. One of the easiest places to operate is Syria. That is why most attacks currently occur in Syria.
Until now, Jordan has been a peaceful island in the midst of a crisis. Is this changing now?
The problem for Jordan will be more of a long-term crisis. This will have an impact on the social and economic situation, which at the moment is not the best. There are also confrontations with drug and weapons traffickers and constant alert on the border. So if everything continues as it is now, the system will weaken over time.