Image of a rocket launcher in Ukraine issued by the Russian Ministry of Defense
Image: AP

After two years of war in Ukraine, Moscow is confident. But the West could easily break Russia's apparent strength – if it follows three strategic guidelines. A guest post.

AAt the beginning of the third year of the Russian war of aggression, Russia continues to have escalation dominance. The 2023 Ukrainian offensive has yielded few territorial gains and Western support for Ukraine is waning. Contrary to signals of willingness to negotiate cleverly conveyed in the Western media, Moscow is actually relying on weakening resistance in Ukraine with massive air strikes and undermining Western support through the narrative of a long war.

Putin does not follow a comprehensive strategy

Russia cannot win the war technologically or financially if the collective West actually enters into serious arms competition. That is why it is all the more important for the Russian leadership to focus on disintegration and to stoke fears about the risks of a Ukrainian victory.