Iowa is the first test run of the presidential election campaign for the Republicans on Monday. But most, it seems, have already found their winner.

EIt doesn't matter whether it's two degrees or minus 22 degrees. The first step outside is always terrible, says Earl Canfield. He's been through many winters here in northeast Iowa, 56 to be exact. Canfield has lived here his entire life. But that doesn't make this moment any better when he steps out the door and the cold air hits him. No matter how many layers he wears under his faded black jacket.

You can't control the weather, Canfield knows that. Man makes plans, but God decides, that's already in the Bible, he says. And so all he can do is hope that he can drive to Dunkerton High School with his wife Jane on Monday evening to vote for Donald Trump in the caucus. It's less than three kilometers, just a few minutes by car. But heavy snowstorms and up to 35 centimeters of fresh snow are forecast for the next few days. If necessary, they have to get on the snowmobiles that are parked in front of the house.