After the European elections, the French president decided to call new parliamentary elections. This means that Macron can open the door to the far right.
French President Macron at a press conference on June 16 Photo: Stephane Mahé/Reuters
On the night of the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron said: “It is better to write history than endure it. Shortly before, he had dissolved the National Assembly and had scheduled parliamentary elections for June 30 and July 7, in reaction to this. the results of the elections. A meager 14.6 percent for his centrist Renaissance party, compared to 31.3 percent for Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN), while Éric Zemmour's far-right Reconquête group obtained 5.4 percent. . The left field registers 30 percent.
Perhaps Macron, whose term expires in 2027, will make history, but in a different way than he imagines. Instead of stopping the rise of extremist forces, he risks opening the door to them with his kamikaze action. The most recent polls put RN at 33.3 percent. This could be enough to name the next head of government: the peculiarities of the French majority voting system, which until now has been a bulwark against a right-wing march, make this possible. If no candidate achieves an absolute majority in the first round, all competitors who have obtained at least 12.5 percent of the votes will face each other again in the second round.
If the predictions are correct, coexistence would occur. This forced marriage brings together a president and a government of different political tendencies. This has happened three times in the history of the Fifth Republic.
From 1986 to 1988, socialist president François Mitterrand governed with a center-right majority under Jacques Chirac. In his last two years in office, Mitterrand “cohabited” with the Gaullist Édouard Balladur. Starting in 1997, Chirac, now president, had a feeling of déjà vu: he was facing the socialist Lionel Jospin as prime minister. The power that the Head of Government has can be seen in the 35-hour week, general health insurance and registered partnerships for same-sex couples that were introduced under Jospin, against Chirac's wishes.
New elections are only possible every twelve months
In 2000, based on his extensive experience in coexistence, he initiated a constitutional reform: the president's term was reduced from seven to five years and was thus harmonized with the legislative period of the National Assembly. As a rule, parliamentary elections are held after presidential elections. But there is no rule without exception, as recent events demonstrate. However, this could lead to something of an emergency if the new Prime Minister is Jordan Bardella, the RN's breakout star, and the RN perhaps wins an absolute majority.
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In this case, Macron would not be deprived of all his powers. But he can only call new elections every twelve months. There is still the possibility of refusing to sign decrees. The infamous article 49.3 would apply here. This allows the government to push a law through the National Assembly without a vote, but risks being defeated by a vote of no confidence, something that has never happened before. Thanks to this article, the government approved a controversial pension reform in 2023.
This “sword” could be turned against Macron himself. In the 2002 presidential election, a Republican front lined up behind Chirac to prevent Jean-Marie Le Pen. It is doubtful whether this will be successful again. “Macron's bets could make the chaos in France even worse,” the newspaper writes The world-Columnist Sylvie Kauffmann. “This deprives Europe of a much-needed leading and creative voice, especially in times of war.”