Nfter the first round of the presidential election, there is a consensus in Finland: this election was no surprise, and it was a good one. Analyzes in the Finnish media said on Monday that the election campaign was clean and objective. There were moderate, civilized and serious debates. Perhaps they were a bit boring at times, also because there were hardly any differences, especially on the central issues of security and defense.
But given the aggression of its neighbor Russia, that is an achievement in itself, according to the tenor. Perhaps the most surprising thing about the election result was the fact that there were no surprises – unlike in any other presidential election since 1994. Since then, the Finnish president has been directly elected.
According to the provisional official final result, former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb (National Coalition Party) received 27.2 percent of the vote, while former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto (Greens), who is running for a voters' association, received 25.8 percent. Both will now move into the runoff election for the highest Finnish office, which will take place on February 11th.
The left camp coordinated tactically
This means that Jussi Halla-aho (19 percent), parliamentary speaker from the right-wing populist Basic Finns, and former EU Commissioner Olli Rehn (15.3 percent) are out of the running. At 74.9 percent, voter turnout was slightly higher than in the previous presidential election in 2018.
Almost half of the voters voted for candidates other than Stubb and Haavisto, and it is now questionable how they will decide in the runoff election. Polls last week showed Stubb with a lead in a head-to-head against Haavisto. However, Haavisto now performed slightly better than forecast. Most of the potential voters of the two defeated candidates from the Left and Social Democrats probably went to him – together they received less than 10 percent. The Social Democrats experienced a disaster. While they get around 20 percent in national polls, their presidential candidate only received 4.3 percent.
Many voters from the left camp probably voted tactically. Their aim was apparently to prevent the controversial candidate of the grassroots Finns, Parliament Speaker Halla-aho. The crucial question for the runoff election is likely to be the question of where his supporters will put their cross. Halla-aho, who was once convicted of sedition, had not even tried to reach voters outside his base during the election campaign. Nevertheless, he received a better result than any other candidate from his party in a presidential election to date.
No election recommendation from Halla-aho yet
Halla-aho made no election recommendation on Sunday. It is obvious that his supporters will vote for Stubb as a member of the conservative coalition party, which currently provides the Prime Minister. However, Stubb belongs to the Finnish-Swedish minority – whose status in the country is rejected by grassroots Finns. Haavisto, who is running as a presidential candidate for the third time, is likely to receive only a few votes from right-wing populist supporters as a member of the Green Party who lives in a relationship with a man.
During the election campaign, Stubb and Haavisto showed hardly any differences on the central issue of security and defense. It is expected that in the two weeks leading up to the runoff election, the issues of the labor market and the social system will be in the foreground due to announced strikes, even if the president has no decision-making power here. The conservative government is planning far-reaching cuts that are very controversial in the country.
This could put the two candidates more in the role of government versus opposition, which could be to Haavisto's advantage, Finnish newspapers are now speculating. As of Wednesday, Finns will be able to vote early, for example in shopping centers or libraries.