Now that we are on the other side of Labor Day and summer is winding down, this is, as tradition goes, when the focus on political campaigns really starts to heat up. November’s off-year elections will get some attention, but the main attraction remains the 2024 Republican presidential primary.

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we ask a question we’ll no doubt return to in the four months until the Iowa caucuses: Is Donald Trump’s nomination inevitable? And if it’s not inevitable, how can we put the likelihood of him winning the GOP primary in historical context?

We also have partial results from two special primaries and debate “good or bad use of polls” for a classic and controversial topic: internal polls.

You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by clicking downloading it on iTuneshe ESPN app or your favorite podcast platform. If you’re new to podcasts, learn to listen.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded on Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Do you have any comments, questions or suggestions about “good surveys vs. bad surveys”? Contact by email, On twitter or in the comments.

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