Variety Awards circuit The section is home to all awards news and related content throughout the year, including: official predictions for the upcoming Oscar awardsEmmy, Grammy and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety Clayton Davis, Senior Awards Editor. Prediction pages reflect the current race standings and do not reflect personal preferences of any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) surveys suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on rumors and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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Oscars 2023 predictions:
best Actor
Jamie Foxx as Willie Gary in The Burial Photo: Skip Bolen © AMAZON CONTENT SERVICES LLC
Skip Bolen/Prime Video
Weekly commentary (updated in September). 142023): The race for best actor is sure to be a bloodbath, with each new contender landing at a festival and living up to (or exceeding) expectations.
We already know that Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) and Leonardo Dicaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) will be two strong bets for the nominations. There are also Telluride standouts Colman Domingo (“Rustin”), Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”) and Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”), along with Venice stars Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”) and Adam Driver (“Ferrari”). .
Noteworthy: Peter Sarsgaard won the Volpi Cup for best actor for his heartbreaking performance in Michel Franco’s “Memory.” Aside from the film not yet having US distribution, it’s more likely that the role will get a secondary push when it’s acquired and released.
TIFF provided a lively turn from veteran actor Jeffrey Wright in MGM’s “American Fiction,” while his studio counterpart Jamie Foxx brought star power and charm in the highly entertaining “The Burial.”
Wright owes his love and comedic work to Cord Jefferson’s first feature film, one of his best.
As for Foxx, he uses everything in his acting tool belt that makes Maggie Betts’ sophomore film an undeniable crowd-pleaser. The return of the actor who faced health issues earlier this year could be something the Actors Branch would gravitate towards.
There are simply not enough places for all this talent. Someone (or some people) will be left out.
Read: Varieties Awards circuit for the latest Oscar predictions in all categories.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout awards season.
And the expected nominees are:
- Bradley Cooper — “Teacher“(Netflix)
- andres scott — “All of us strangers(Reflector Images)
- Matt Damon — “Air(Amazon MGM Studios)
- Gael Garcia Bernal — “cassander(Amazon MGM Studios)
- adam driver — “ferrari“(Neon)
Other top-level possibilities
- Austin Butler — “The cyclists” (20th century studies) **
- Jamie Foxx — “The burial(Amazon MGM Studios)
- Anthony Hopkins — “Freud’s last session” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
- Barry Keoghan — “salty burn(Amazon MGM Studios)
- Nicolas Cage — “dream scenario” (A24)
- Zac Efron — “The iron claw” (A24)
- Christian Friedel — “The area of interest” (A24)
- Koji Yakusho — “perfect days“(Neon)
- teo yoo — “Past Lives” (A24) **
- Pablo Dano — “dumb money” (Sony Images)
Also in dispute
- Joaquin Phoenix — “Napoleon(Apple Original Movies/Sony Pictures)
- Benoit Magime — “The taste of things(IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
- David Strathairn — “a little prayer(Sony Pictures Classics)
- Jay Baruchel — “Blackberry(IFC Films)
- josh o’connor — “The Chimera“(Neon)
- Michael Fassbender — “The murderer“(Netflix)
- Kelvin Harrison Jr.. — “Gentleman(Reflector Images)
- Alden Ehrenreich — “Fair play“(Netflix)
- Jesse Garcia — “Flamin’ hot(Hulu/Searchlight Images)
- Joaquin Phoenix — “Beau is scared” (A24)
All eligible titles (alphabetical by study)**
- John David Washington – “The Creator” (20th Century Studios)
- Kenneth Branagh – “A Curse in Venice” (20th Century Studios)
- Austin Butler – “The cyclists” (20th century studies) **
- Tom Hardy — “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) **
- Joaquin Phoenix – “Beau is afraid” (A24)
- Nicolas Cage – “Dream Scenario” (A24)
- Zac Efron – “The Iron Claw” (A24) **
- Tee Yoo – “Past Lives” (A24)
- Jacob Elordi — “Priscila” (A24) **
- Jesse Eisenberg – “When you’re done saving the world” (A24)
- Christian Friedel…The area of interest” (A24)
- Matt Damon – “Air(Amazon MGM Studios)
- Jamie Foxx – “The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Tommy Lee Jones – “The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Gael García Bernal – “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Paul Mescal – “Enemy” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Barry Keoghan – “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Riz Ahmed – “Nails” (Apple Original Movies)
- Orén Kinlan — “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) **
- Leonardo Dicaprio-“Flower Moon Killers(Apple Original Movies/Paramount Pictures)
- Joaquin Phoenix — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- Liev Schreiber – “Across the River and Among the Trees” (Bleecker Street)
- Paul Giamatti – “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
- Jay Baruchel – “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
- Benoît Magime — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
- Jesse García – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
- Keanu Reeves – “John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)
- Joel Edgerton – “Master Gardener” (Magnolia Pictures)
- Paul Rudd – “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios)
- Bradley Cooper – “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios) **
- Chris Pratt – “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios) **
- Callum Turner – “Boat Boys” (MGM)
- Michael B. Jordan – “Creed III” (MGM)
- Jeffrey Wright – “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Jaime Vadell – “The Count” (Netflix)
- Alden Ehrenreich – “Fair Play” (Netflix)
- Josh O’Connor – “The Chimera” (Neon)
- Jon Bernthal – “Inception” (Neon)
- Kôji Yakusho – “Perfect Days” (Neon)
- Michael Fassbender – “The Killer” (Netflix)
- Mahershala Ali – “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)
- Bradley Cooper – “Master” (Netflix)
- Colman Domingo – “Rustin” (Netflix)
- Rafael Federman – “The Snow Society” (Netflix)
- Peter Sarsgaard — “Memory” (no US distribution) **
- Kingsley Ben-Adir – “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
- Tom Cruise – “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
- Andrés Scott—“All of us strangers(Reflector Images)
- Kelvin Harrison Jr. – “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Jonathan Majors — “Magazine Dreams” (Searchlight Pictures) **
- Michael Fassbender: “The next target wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Lakeith Stanfield — “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
- Paul Dano – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Denzel Washington — “The Equalizer 3” (Sony Pictures)
- Shameik Moore—“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Images)
- Anthony Hopkins — “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- David Strathairn — “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Adam Driver – “Ferrari” (Neon)
- Cillian Murphy—“oppenheimer(Universal Photos)
- Peter Dinklage – “She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment)
- Jason Mamoa – “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (Warner Bros.)
- Xolo Maridueña – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Timothée Chalamet – “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
- Harrison Ford – “Indiana Jones and the dial of destiny” (Warner Bros.)
- Jonah Hauer-King – “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
2022 category winner: Brendan Fraser, “The Whale” (A24)
** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the main or secondary categories. All release dates are subject to change.
Oscar Prediction Categories
BEST IMAGE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SECONDARY ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCRIPT | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLE | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY ARTICLE | INTERNATIONAL ARTICLE | ANIMATED SHORT | SHORT DOCUMENTARY | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, are Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) select nominees and winners. Seventeen branches are represented among its nearly 10,000 members. The branches are Actors, Associates, Casting Directors, Directors of Photography, Costume Designers, Documentary Directors, Executives, Film Editors, Makeup Artists and Stylists, Marketing and Public Relations, General Members, General Members (Artist Representatives), Music , producers, production design, animated short and feature films, sound, visual effects and writers.
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