Now that we are on the other side of Labor Day and summer is winding down, this is, as tradition goes, when the focus on political campaigns really starts to heat up. November’s off-year elections will get some attention, but the main attraction remains the 2024 Republican presidential primary.

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we ask a question we’ll no doubt return to in the four months until the Iowa caucuses: Is Donald Trump’s nomination inevitable? And if it’s not inevitable, how can we put the likelihood of him winning the GOP primary in historical context?

We also have partial results from two special primaries and debate “good or bad use of polls” for a classic and controversial topic: internal polls.

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