Once a year, market analysis service provider BloombergNEF publishes its latest “Electric Vehicle Outlook” (EVO), a comprehensive report on the state of the transportation transition, especially as it relates to electromobility. In the industry, EVO is considered one of the most recognized market analyzes that always recognizes trends and setbacks early on. FOCUS online Earth was able to preview the issue published on Wednesday and it shows six important trends that analysts are drawing attention to.

1. The battery revolution has just begun

Batteries are evolving on two different fronts: one Prices are currently collapsing.on the other hand The market is full of technological innovations. One of the main causes of the price drop is China: according to BNEF, last year alone prices for so-called lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cells fell by 44 percent in China.

LFP batteries are still a relatively new development in the electric car market, but they are increasingly displacing conventional battery types such as lithium-ion. The world's two largest manufacturers, CATL and BYD, both from China, have made significant technical advances in the last two years when it comes to the range, energy density and safety of LFP batteries. This allows them to take advantage of their main advantage over competing battery types: they require less rare materials such as nickel and, above all, manganese.

BNEF estimates that LFP batteries will have a 50 percent market share for electric cars in the coming years. This, in turn, drives down the prices of electric cars even further and promotes their sales. Only in China, technical advances are… 23.9 million additional electric cars by 2035 go outside, the report says.

What could be good news for China – and for the transportation transition in general – is however becoming increasingly Problem for non-Chinese manufacturers: They will find it even more difficult than it already is to establish their own battery supply chain. And not all manufacturers in China will benefit from the battery boom either. Bloomberg analysts see huge overcapacity as one of the reasons for the price decline. By 2026, China is expected to produce seven times more batteries than the global market needs.A massive wave of bankruptcies is to be feared.

2. Not only rich countries can afford electric cars

“Electric cars are no longer a phenomenon exclusive to rich countries”, says the report. And, in fact, countries like Thailand, India and Brazil are currently experiencing absolute sales records: in India alone, according to BNEF data, electric car sales increased by 40 percent last year. Even the Chinese market, which remains the most important, shows no signs of fatigue with similar growth rates.

Analysts see the reason for the rise of an expanded product portfolio: reaching everyone More and more electric car models in the cheapest price segments in the market. According to analysts, growth rates in South America and Asia can at least partially offset the lower enthusiasm for electric mobility seen in countries such as the US, Italy and Germany.

3. The electric car market continues to grow, but at a slower pace

According to the report, the market share of newly sold electric cars will increase by an average of 21 percent annually in the coming years; In the years 2020 to 2023 the increase was 61 percent. “Global sales of electric cars will continue to increase in the coming years, but the growth rate is clearly slower than before“says the analysis. One cause is that many Western car manufacturers in particular have not yet managed to offer electric models in the lower price segments. The result: even in 2040, more than half of all cars on the world's roads will still have a combustion engine.

This is bad news for the climate: for transport to be climate neutral in 2050, the sale of combustion cars will no longer be allowed from 2038, analysts estimate. Leading markets like Germany would have to exit even soonerin the early 2030s. In all likelihood, by 2038 only the Scandinavian countries will be ready, according to the report.

To achieve climate goals, Therefore, politics must intervene more strongly in the market., says the report. The report does not mention possible instruments, but in many industrialized countries there are already subsidies for the purchase of electric cars and gasoline is already subject to CO2 taxes or emissions trading. In the European Union there is also a mandatory end to the sale of new combustion engines from 2035, as long as they cannot be powered exclusively with electronic fuels. However, after the European elections at the weekend, in which right-wing parties made progress, the exit from combustion engines is faltering again.

In any case, the report criticizes, policy is currently going in the opposite direction in terms of regulation, for example with punitive tariffs on imports of electric cars from China. The US government has already approved such tariffs, and the EU Commission has also threatened to impose punitive tariffs on Beijing. “Governments that want to boost national production at the expense of faster decarbonization They must think carefully about their priorities“warns Aleksandra O'Donovan, head of electric cars at BNEF. “The goal of zero-emission transport by 2050 is still possible, but much faster progress is needed.”

4. The electric wave not only affects cars

One of the most surprising developments in the transportation sector: Heavy truck battery development progressing faster than expected. Electric trucks are used for most applications. Commercially competitive already in 2030. analysts estimate. By 2040, almost half of all new trucks sold will be electric.

The reason for the miraculous progress is mainly due to technological advances in the battery sector, which allow greater autonomy. Also important: strict policy limits that encourage manufacturers and fleet operators to take action. “Truck manufacturers face rapid technological transformation, in the context of strict climate targets in Europe and the USA,” says Nikolas Soulopoulus, head of the freight transport department at BNEF. “The speed of this change will be unprecedented for the industry, but to meet the Paris climate goals, the production of zero-emission vehicles must be even faster.”

Development is even faster in local public transport, such as city buses. According to BMEF estimates Electric city buses will already account for 60 percent of all bus sales by 2030, in 2040 the proportion will increase to 83 percent. The electrification of local public transport is not only happening in rich industrialized countries, it is happening globally. The Nigerian state of Lagos, for example, wants to put a total of 12,000 electric buses into circulation in the next seven years, with Chinese help.

In any case, other transport options that are hardly relevant in Germany also play a role in emerging developing countries. And that is where the change to electromobility is advancing the fastest. For example with three-wheeled vehicles, especially rickshaws: Last year, 80 percent of three-wheeled vehicles sold had an electric motor, says the analysis. Rickshaws are therefore currently the only transport segment that will become climate neutral by 2050.

5. The hybrid car celebrates its return

Hybrid propulsion has often been declared dead, as an unnecessary bridge technology that has few advantages over electric mobility. Customers apparently see it differently: there is a product offensive with economical models, especially in China Revival of supplement sales triggered, says the analysis. Europe has thus been replaced as the leading market for hybrid cars. The main difference: Chinese manufacturers equip their hybrid models with more powerful batteries than their European and American competitors, the authors write. In Western models, the battery is intended more as a complement to the combustion engine, also to comply with fleet limits.

However, it remains to be seen whether the return of hybrids will last. “Although hybrid propulsion is considered a technology that bridges the gap to an emissions-free future, over-reliance on hybrid models also carries risks,” the authors write. The most important question: Do customers buy your hybrids as an alternative to a combustion engine model or an electric car? Depending on the situation, hybrids could speed up or slow down the transportation transition.

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6. Electric car drivers travel more kilometers than expected

One of the biggest concerns that prevents potential customers from purchasing an electric car is the so-called “range anxiety”: the fear that the even lower range of electric mobility will not be enough to cover certain distances. Who wants to be stranded halfway? However, the BNEF report shows that frequent drivers in particular are increasingly trusting electric cars: In the Netherlands, for example, an average electric car drives 56 percent more kilometers per year than an average electric car; in China, the difference reaches 66 percent;

BNEF attributes these surprising values ​​mainly to the fact that electric cars are becoming more and more attractive, especially for travelers. “A high rate of use of electric cars among travelers “It is a strong sign that there is demand for these cars,” the report says. However, there is one notable exception: the United States. There, an electric car travels an average of 38 percent fewer kilometers than a combustion engine. According to the analysis, these considerations are always influenced by geography and probably also by the availability of charging infrastructure. The good news, however, is that “range anxiety” already seems inappropriate in many regions of the world.