MWith the Progress Party's third consecutive election victory, the people of Taiwan have underlined their independence and voted to continue the previous security policy. The country's eighth free and fair presidential election is evidence of a consolidated democracy. Society and politics are moving ever further to the center; all candidates wanted to preserve the status quo on the Taiwan Strait.

But this status quo is crumbling, on all sides. Most islanders see themselves as Taiwanese and reject unification with the mainland. Neither China's economic carrot nor the stick of military maneuvers will change this.

After Beijing came to power in Hong Kong and openly sided with Putin, hardly anyone in Taiwan has any illusions about China's totalitarian character. So, for now, Beijing is only left on the defensive, preventing Taiwan from becoming formally independent by threatening war.

At the same time, China is deliberately challenging the status quo. Xi Jinping has decided that unification with Taiwan will no longer be postponed from generation to generation. Its military has significantly expanded maneuvers around the island. Taiwan responds by rearming.

The arms spiral is turning

The USA is also increasingly moving away from its “strategic ambiguity” as to whether or not it will come to the Republic's aid in the event of war. President Biden underscores this by significantly increasing arms deliveries and increasing the number of military advisors in Taiwan.

Therefore, Xi's plans are likely to be aligned with America. If Donald Trump wins the election, the status quo of the international order is likely to be in jeopardy. Until then, major Chinese actions against Taiwan could result in China itself becoming an election issue in America. Last but not least, China's economic weakness and the problems in the military are likely to give Taiwan many more years of peace.