The end of Title 42 could be a big problem for Biden

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At 11:59 p.m. Thursday night, Title 42, a policy dating from the Donald Trump administration that facilitated the expulsion of immigrants of the US, citing the public health risk of COVID-19, has officially ended. Experts expect this to lead to an increase in immigration across the US-Mexico border, and there are signs that it has already begun: the number of migrants crossing the border has already risen from a norm of around 6,000-7,000 a day at the end of last year. to 10,000 per day on Monday and Tuesday of this week, and the streets of many border cities are filling up with migrants seeking entry to the US

President Biden’s administration has been preparing for the expiration of Title 42 by building more migrant facilities, making it easier for people to apply to enter the U.S. legally rather than risk crossing the border illegally and even dispatch of 1,500 soldiers to the border And politically, taking such aggressive action is probably smart: Polls suggest not only that Americans want to keep Title 42, but also that another border crisis could spell political disaster for Biden.

according to a Survey of May 6 and 7 From Morning Consult, 51 percent of registered voters opposed ending Title 42, and only 37 percent supported ending it. While that’s the only recent survey we have on the subject, its findings were similar to those of a May 2022 survey of Politico/Harvard in which American adults opposed ending the program 55 percent to 45 percent.

These numbers are not too surprising considering that a plurality of Americans thought that too many immigrants were coming to the US. before Title 42 expired. according to a February 2023 survey from the Associated Press/NORC Public Affairs Research Center, 44 percent of American adults thought the number of immigrants in the US should be reduced. An additional 34 percent wanted the number of immigrants to stay the same, and only 20 percent thought it should be increased.

Of course, with everything else going on in the country, one unpopular decision may not change many people’s minds about Biden. But the real danger for him lies in the possibility that he creates another border crisis, which could refocus the national conversation around immigration, one of Biden’s weaker issues.

In an average of six polls conducted since April 18, just 35 percent of Americans said they approved of Biden’s handling of immigration, while 57 percent disapproved. That issue-specific net approval rating of -22 percentage points was 13 points worse than Biden’s median overall approval rating in those same polls.

according to a Morning Consultation Survey since March, 47 percent of registered voters also felt the US immigration system had worsened under the Biden presidency, while only 20 percent thought it had improved (24 percent said it had had stayed the same).

In other words, if immigration becomes a major issue during the 2024 presidential campaign, that’s bad news for Biden. Immigration is an issue that encourages Republicans much more than Democrats: in a November 2022 survey of FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos performed using Ipsos Knowledge Panel, 34 percent of Republicans named immigration as one of the top issues facing the country (making it their second-highest priority, after inflation), but only 7 percent of Democrats did. . Additionally, in the aforementioned Morning Consult poll, registered voters said they trusted Trump more than Biden to handle immigration by 9 points, the largest Trump lead in 17 issues the pollster asked about.

Admittedly, there are still 18 months until the 2024 election, so there is plenty of time for other news to top this one. But the longer immigration is part of the national conversation this summer, the more political damage Biden is likely to suffer. So it’s no wonder his administration is emphasizing all the steps he’s taking to mitigate a crisis, but only time will tell if they work.

Other poll morsels

• A ABC News/Washington Post poll from April 28 to May 3 had everyone talking after Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis led Biden by 6 points among registered voters. However, Democrats need not be scared. It’s quite possible that the poll simply picked up a particularly Republican-leaning sample: Biden’s approval rating was an unusually low 36 percent in the poll, and some other polls they have found Biden far behind the Republicans. Although ABC News/Washington Post is one of the best pollsters aroundeven the big pollsters publish an outlier from time to time (in fact, we would expect them to). Furthermore, it is too early in the electoral calendar that the general election polls mean a lot. Generally, you must wait until after the presidential primaries they are determined to pay attention.
• Americans may finally understand what the debt ceiling finally means, after more than a decade of high profile fights for it. TO new YouGov survey he explained the debt ceiling to half of his sample and then asked their opinion on raising it, while only asking the other half about raising it without any context. In both cases, about 40 percent said the debt ceiling should be raised and about 40 percent said no. Furthermore, 52 percent correctly identified the debt ceiling as a limit on government borrowing to finance spending that has already been approved, while only 25 percent incorrectly said it was a limit on public spending. Compare this with a similar YouGov survey since 2013, when 42 percent said raising the debt ceiling would allow the US to pay interest on its debt and for spending it has already authorized, and 39 percent said it would directly increase government spending and debt government.
• According to a Survey from April 3 to 9 From YouGov, Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to think the media is trustworthy. YouGov specifically asked how much Americans trusted 56 different news outlets, and Democrats trusted 50 of them more than Republicans. The only exceptions were the conservative outlets: Newsmax, One America News, Fox News, The Federalist, Breitbart News, and Infowars. The only non-conservative outlet that had a reliable net rating of more than 20 points among Republicans was The Weather Channel. The outlet with the largest trust gap between the two parties was CNN: Democrats trusted it by 55 points, while Republicans distrusted it by 37 points.

Biden endorsement

According to FiveThirtyEight presidential approval tracker, 42.4 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 52.5 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -10.1 points). At the moment last week, 42.7 percent approved and 52.6 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -9.9 points). A month ago, Biden had a 42.8 percent approval rating and a 52.5 percent disapproval rating, for a net approval rating of -9.7 points.