If US President Joe Biden wants to win the election, he needs influencers and the stock market, on which retirement provision for many in the United States depends.

On the campaign trail: US President Biden with Senator Bernie Sanders in April Photo: Mark Schiefelbein/ap

The omens, well, they are not good. Ahead of the November election, US President Joe Biden is caught between several things: between Israeli ultras and Palestinian protests, between the party establishment and young progressives, between Donald Trump and an errant Kennedy scion. Biden is trailing in the polls, although just barely. And then he will celebrate his 82nd birthday on November 20th. So how bleak are the prospects for American democracy?

In any case, they are better than the current mood. Joe Biden can win this election. Just a few things need to come together. In particular, he needs the central bank and two influential people, one old and one young. University protests, on the other hand, are overrated when it comes to elections. Of course, to win the elections, Biden would no longer have to stumble too much or confuse the heads of state (no, François Mitterrand is no longer in power in Paris).

Since special counsel Robert Hur delivered the damning verdict on Biden in a report as a “sympathetic, well-intentioned older gentleman with a short memory,” Biden has been fighting a gerontocratic image. The nightmare would be falling down the stairs of Air Force One. What helps him, on the other hand, is the dispute over abortion, which from a European perspective seems typical of the 80s, but which in the United States has become part of of the great culture war. Women's right to self-determination mobilizes the democratic milieu.

Experts disagree on what role Robert Kennedy Junior could play in the election. Some warn that RKJ, after all a Kennedy, could win over young and Latino voters from Biden's entourage. Others see Trump's candidacy under pressure. In the duel, Trump is slightly ahead of Biden. But when all independent candidates are polled, including Kennedy, Biden recently had a slight lead. However, all this is of little use as long as the stock market is not doing well.

A young woman and an old white man as a recipe for success

Most Americans rely on tax-exempt, stock-based pension plans, known as 401(k), to plan for their retirement. If the stock market is doing well, Americans look to the future with more confidence. This is usually credited to the sitting president. If the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, lowered interest rates again before the election and stock markets rose as a result, that could significantly support confidence in Biden.

At around 38,300 points, the Dow Jones is only slightly below its all-time high. What Joe Biden still needs are credible ambassadors. The former president will depend on a whole army of young influencers on social networks. He will surround himself with young Democrats, women and people of color. But perhaps Joe Biden's most valuable assets are a young woman and an elderly white man from Vermont.

Independent US Senator Bernie Sanders, a long-time Senate colleague, not only embodies everything that young progressives (on the coasts) value: determination in the fight against the climate crisis, a touch of socialism and criticism of the politics of Biden towards Israel. Sanders is credible because of his proximity to workers, his commitment to justice, and his bold ideas about the welfare state (in the heart of the country). In 2016, Sanders ran as an internal party opponent to Hillary Clinton.

Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada

“Bernie’s” entourage then moved away from the Clinton elite. Trump won the election. And Bernie Sanders has learned his lesson. He now travels around the country as Biden's ambassador, praising the president's social achievements and criticizing his insufficiently progressive profile. Of course, a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to the killings would calm the seething mood among American leftists and citizens of Arab-immigrant origins.

Michigan in particular, with its large Arab community, is seen as an issue that Democrats are already paying close attention to. What is less relevant to Biden is whether college campuses are busy in Los Angeles or New York. Elections are won in the swing states, Michigan, Wisconsin or Nevada, not on the coasts.

The X factor could become a second influencer: Taylor Swift, the biggest pop star in the world, the new album at number one, her boyfriend winning the Super Bowl. You can hardly get more shine. Swift has already taken a pro-Biden stance. If she does it again, Old Joe will suddenly look like he's not 81, but a few years younger. Perhaps these would be the decisive years.