Look, Week 10 hasn’t been kind when it comes to the NFL’s handicap in this space. After a positive result on Thursday, Sunday brought ugliness to the tune of a winless day and a 1-4 week. The process wasn’t ideal, the results weren’t good, and those are things who arrive. Alas, week 11 brings more opportunities and, zooming in, the first ten weeks of the year have been rock solid overall.
As always, we strive to maintain our principles, and before we get to the five-game pack, let’s take a look at the bigger picture.
- Week 10: 1-4
- 2023 season: 26-21-3
Come get these winners.
Carolina Panthers (+10.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys – Widely Available
This is the first of two double-digit underdogs we have this week, and Carolina is at home for good measure. There’s not much to get excited about for Carolina, but the defense has shown more in recent days and the Panthers have some extra rest after playing Thursday last week. I wouldn’t like it at 9.5, but 10.5 is an attractive number here.
Cleveland Browns (-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Widely available
It brings me no joy to root for Dorian Thompson-Robinson against the Steelers. I can assure you. However, Cleveland is the stronger team this week, as the numbers still don’t make sense for Pittsburgh. Granted, this may just be Mike Tomlin voodoo, but Cleveland’s defense is the best unit in this game and I still believe the downgrade from Watson to Browns backup quarterback is smaller than this. as the market indicates. On the bright side, maybe I’ll stop writing off Pittsburgh if they beat us again this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12) vs. San Francisco 49ers — DraftKings
It is very likely that San Francisco will win this game. The 49ers were totally dominant last week, and I understand that’s a mismatch on paper. Still, this number should be 9.5 or 10 and we can enter 12. This probably won’t be a fun task, but principles are principles.
TEASER: Jacksonville Jaguars (-0.5) vs. Tennessee Titans and Buffalo Bills (-1) vs. New York Jets – BetMGM
We were profitable on teasers this year, but last week was crap. We will of course come back to Buffalo, choosing to buy (very) low on the Bills, and Jacksonville is coming off a disastrous performance against San Francisco. These are two home favorites who should come home.
Los Angeles Rams (+1) vs. Seattle Seahawks – Widely Available
Matthew Stafford is close to returning here and, if he does, that’s a number I really like for the Rams. Los Angeles just isn’t the same team without him, but Stafford unlocks the Rams’ offense and it’s an overall friendly spot.
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