DThe winner of the Republican primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire is Joe Biden. Of course, Donald Trump emerged victorious in both votes. And it's only a matter of time before donors signify remaining presidential contender Nikki Haley's exit from the race. The primaries are over. The longest primary election campaign in American history begins. And Biden had said a long time ago that he would be happy if his predecessor ran against him again.

In fact, even Nikki Haley and much of the Republican establishment think nothing better could happen to the Democrats. After his victory in 2016, Trump lost all of the following elections: not only the 2020 presidential election, but also the 2018 and 2022 congressional elections. In the latter, there was no red wave in the House of Representatives. In the Senate, almost all of the candidates who had been supported by Trump failed. Now optimistic Democrats and Republican Trump critics hope the same thing: that the former president will also fail in November.

Wake up the core clientele

Current surveys do not support this thesis: Trump is currently leading Biden, in some cases clearly, both at the national level and in the crucial swing states whose electors the winner needs. But as clear as Haley's defeat in the primaries was, it exposed Trump's vulnerability. Post-election polls show that the Republican received almost three-quarters of the votes of moderate Republicans. Additionally, nearly 60 percent of the vote came from college-educated voters and 66 percent of the vote from independent voters. In the center-right spectrum, people wanted to leave the Trump era behind them. This has failed for the time being because this segment of voters is no longer decisive within the Republican Party. But for the ability to gain a majority in the country as a whole. This group of voters is now being courted by Biden.

This text comes from the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.

To be clear: Haley voters are by no means safe from Biden. Not all moderate-conservative Americans are so-called Never-Trumpers, but a significant number of them are. The incumbent must convince the Democrats to trust him again – as they did in 2020. The same applies to independent voters. She also has to convince Biden that he is the better choice. Finally: As true as it is in America that elections are won by the political center, Biden must also wake up the core constituency. Specifically, that means: African American voters, young voters and unionized voters. Biden has lost significant popularity, especially among blacks and young people. He hasn't delivered enough or is simply too old for these voters. American support for Israel in the Gaza war has made things worse for the president.

But Biden and his people believe that now that the main election campaign has begun, the cards will be reshuffled. The option of a conservative alternative to Trump no longer exists for moderates and independents. African Americans and left-wing young voters, in turn, have to decide whether they actually want to promote Trump's return to the White House by not voting.