In the European Union, pressure is growing on Israel to restrain itself militarily. However, the 27 member states are not yet in a position to speak with one tongue on the issue. Last Friday it almost happened. The EU foreign representative Josep Borrell had prepared a statement on the announced ground offensive in Rafah in the south of the Gaza Strip. The European Union expressed “very concern” about this plan. The key sentence: “The EU asks the Israeli government not to intervene militarily in Rafah in a way that would worsen an already catastrophic humanitarian situation there, and to prevent urgently needed access to basic services and humanitarian assistance.”

The sentence was already the result of a balance of interests between those who, like Germany, emphasize Israel's right to self-defense and those who, like Spain, demand an immediate end to all fighting. 26 countries were on board, one was not: Hungary. So Borrell could only comment on his own behalf.

Orbán is unconditionally at Netanyahu's side for the second time

It was the second case in which Viktor Orbán's government unconditionally sided with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and prevented the EU from adopting a unified stance. The other concerns entry bans against extremist settlers in the West Bank. The foreign ministers discussed this for the first time in mid-December. After the United States took the lead, a broad consensus emerged. Germany and Austria also supported the sanctions, but urged that a new sanctions regime against Hamas supporters be put into effect first.

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock reiterated her position on Monday. The violent attacks by settlers are “a clear violation of the law” that “cannot be left without comment.” The Hamas sanctions were put into effect in January, but the settler sanctions remain blocked by Hungary. Member states can impose national entry bans, as Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib made clear. However, those affected could then continue to enter the EU via Budapest and effectively move freely within the Schengen area.

The next test of European unity or disunity became apparent on Monday. Last week, the heads of government of Spain and Ireland, Pedro Sánchez and Leo Varadkar, called on the EU Commission to carry out an “urgent review” of the EU association agreement with Israel. It's about whether Tel Aviv lives up to its obligation to respect human rights and democratic principles, they wrote to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Spain and Ireland call for an immediate ceasefire

The prime ministers suggested that Israel was failing to ensure the protection of Palestinian civilians as ordered by the International Court of Justice. They called the offensive in Rafah announced the day before “a serious and immediate threat that the international community must urgently address.” Such phrases are used to justify decisions by the UN Security Council that allow the use of military force.

Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares called for an “immediate and permanent ceasefire” on Monday. His Irish colleague Micheál Martin said that more than 1.5 million people were “crammed together” in southern Gaza. The world is already “shocked by the level of inhumanity that is occurring in Gaza.” Foreign Minister Baerbock expressed herself in a more nuanced way. She also said that the people in Gaza “cannot disappear into thin air.”

But she only called for a “humanitarian ceasefire” during which Israel should allow the refugees to return to the north. Hamas continues to be heavily active in Rafah – which would justify limited military action. Given these differences, it is currently inconceivable that the Council would call on the EU Commission to review the Association Agreement, which grants Israel free trade with the EU in industrial goods and some agricultural products.

However, the Commission could also take action on its own initiative. On Monday, Borrell sounded as if this had been decided: “The council will have to make a decision based on an assessment of the situation,” he said. The Spaniard would undoubtedly welcome this move. However, a spokesman explained that he had only described the legal situation. It is considered unlikely that von der Leyen, who is close to Israel, would initiate such an assessment – at least as long as the Israeli military operation has not yet begun. The government is threatening to do so if the remaining hostages are not released by the start of Ramadan on March 10.

However, if the Commission were to initiate an investigation, a politically interesting situation would arise. In order to completely suspend the association agreement, which also includes science and culture, a unanimous decision by the member states is required. However, they could also decide on individual parts – for example on free trade – with a qualified majority. Some diplomats believe that such a majority could also be achieved against Germany.

The debate among Member States will definitely continue. Gaza will be on the agenda again at the European Council on March 21st and 22nd, a diplomat announced. They want to try to negotiate new conclusions by then.