In the new elections, the SPD will lose more than a third of its votes compared to 2021. The Greens remain constant. Voter participation drops significantly.
SEDAN taz | A heavy defeat for the SPD, a dramatic drop in voter turnout, gains for the CDU and AfD, but no change among the winners in the twelve electoral districts: this is essentially the result of the partial rerun of the federal elections in Berlin on September 26. 2021. Shortly before Christmas, the Federal Constitutional Court had ordered the new edition in 455 of the more than 2,200 electoral districts, due to the electoral setbacks that were then experienced in the capital.
One in five people in Berlin were allowed to vote on Sunday, less than 1 percent of the national electorate. In fact, only one in two people votes. In repeat districts, voter turnout fell from 75.4 to 51 percent compared to 2021.
It was mathematically impossible for the by-election to jeopardize the formation of a majority by the traffic light coalition in the Bundestag. However, in two of Berlin's twelve direct electoral districts the decision was eagerly awaited, as a large part of the electorate was allowed to vote again: in the eastern district of Pankow, with the modern district of Prenzlauer Berg, and in the western district of Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf, around Ku'damm and the Bahnhof zoo.
Müller (SPD) can barely defend his mandate
While in Pankow Stefan Gelbhaar of the Green Party extended his lead even further, in the western district the former mayor of the city-state, Michael Müller (SPD), could only narrowly defend his mandate despite a large lead in the 2021 elections. In the end, Müller was left with only 600 votes ahead of the Greens' Federal Family Minister Lisa Paus and almost 700 ahead of the CDU candidate Klaus-Dieter Gröhler in the calculation general of the repeated electoral districts and in which there was also no vote. In 2021, Müller led Paus by 5,400 votes and the CDU man by 8,400. In percentage terms, the three were now separated by just half a percentage point.
In the 455 repeated electoral districts, the SPD fell – compared to 2021 – in second votes by 7.8 percentage points, to 14.6 percent. The Greens, who at the federal level together with the Social Democrats and the FDP have been part of the much criticized traffic light coalition for months, even managed to slightly increase their result, half a percentage point, to 27.7 percent.
In contrast, the CDU, which had previously been booming in the national polls, increased by almost half in these constituencies and reached 20.6 percent. The AfD (plus 5.6 percentage points) almost doubled its result there: from 7 to 12.6 percent. The Left Party also managed to increase slightly: from 11.9 to 12.6 percent.
Berlin loses four seats in the Bundestag
In the overall Berlin result of around 2,200 electoral districts, the gains and losses compared to 2021 are smaller due to the results in the 455 repeated districts. One of the reasons is the significant reduction in electoral participation. The SPD now has a total of 22.2 percent (minus 1.2 percentage points), the Greens achieved 22.0 (-0.4), the CDU achieved 17.2 (plus 1.3), the left 11 .5 percent (plus 0.1), the AfD 9.4 (plus 1.0). , the FDP 8.1 (-1.0).
Due to lower voter turnout, Berlin has to give up a total of four seats in the Bundestag to other states, as the vote share of the states is changing. Berlin now has four fewer mandates than after the 2021 elections: 25 instead of the previous 29 mandates.
According to the state electoral management, those affected include the Greens and Nina Stahr, who was elected interim state president in December. The SPD, the Left Party and the FDP have to give up a mandate that they previously fulfilled through their state lists. The CDU, whose general secretary Ottlie Klein was in danger of losing her mandate in this way, is not affected.