According to a news report, the federal government assumes that if Ukraine collapses, around ten million more people will leave the country. In this case, the vast majority of refugees would leave for Western Europe and one destination country would be Germany, the Welt am Sonntag newspaper reports citing security circles and informed parliamentarians.

“The worst case scenario, a mass exodus, is increasingly likely”

In this context, CDU foreign politician Roderich Kiesewetter demanded that the states that support Ukraine, in view of the current hesitations of the United States, significantly increase military aid. “If we do not change our strategy of supporting Ukraine, the worst case scenario, a mass exodus from Ukraine and an expansion of the war to NATO countries, will be much more likely,” he told the newspaper. “So ten million refugees is a lower assumption.”

Migration researcher Gerald Knaus shares the assessment of a mass exodus if Ukraine collapses: “If Ukraine lost the war, many more than ten million refugees could come to the EU,” he told the newspaper. “This is already the largest movement of refugees in Europe since the 1940s.” Since the start of the Russian war of aggression in February 2022, more than a million people have already fled from Ukraine to Germany.

Europe has to step forward

If the US continues to fail as support, Europe will have to step forward, demanded the president of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael Roth (SPD). “The EU should then think about taking on a joint debt,” he said in “Welt am Sonntag.” The goal is “firstly, to finance the budget and reconstruction of Ukraine in the long term, secondly, to increase European arms production even more rapidly and, thirdly, to purchase weapons for Ukraine, especially ammunition, not only in Europe but in the world market.”

Despite the current problems in Ukraine, the federal government assumes that the country has the military and financial means to maintain defense and stability until the end of 2024, the report in the newspaper “Welt am Sonntag” continues. Both German services and Western analysts believe that major advances on the front are unlikely to occur this year.