William Ruto is in his second year as president of Kenya. In doing so, he must secure the influence of the country and his own job.
William Ruto, president of Kenya Photo: ZUMA Press Wire/imago
In the midst of his second year as Kenya's president, William Ruto is becoming a juggler. He must simultaneously secure the country's influence and his own job. If Ruto manages to balance the challenges of East African integration and the balance of power in the African Union (AU), he could avoid becoming the first Kenyan president to be impeached after his first term.
The year 2024 began with drama, with William Ruto lobbying to ensure that his fiercest internal rival, opposition leader Raila Odinga, became the next chairperson of the AU Commission.
As recently as 2022, the elder Odinga rejected Ruto's victory in Kenya's presidential election as fraudulent. Now Ruto calls his African counterparts and recommends Odinga for the highest political position available in Africa. African heads of state will decide on this in early 2025.
The advantage is obvious. If Odinga leads the AU for five years from 2025, he will represent Africa on the world stage and Ruto will also get rid of his worst opponent in the next Kenyan elections in 2027. Because within Kenya, Ruto's popularity is at freefall. The economy is weakening and inflation exceeds the public's tolerance limit.
The movement with Moscow
And Ruto came up with another move. He appointed the acting secretary-general of the East African regional organization EAC (East African Community), Peter Mathuki, as Kenya's new ambassador to Moscow. Mathuki has just completed three of his five years in office at the CAO and faces calls for his removal from the CAO Parliament for allegedly approving expenditure of more than $5 million without authorization. Now Kenya's president is taking him out of the line of fire by transferring him to Russia. Another Kenyan will serve the remaining two years of his CAO term.
If William Ruto is successful, he will soon be rid of his worst opponent.
Other East Africans don't think that's right. A Ugandan lawyer has filed a complaint with the EAC Court. The argument: the Secretary General is appointed by the summit of the eight members of the EAC, and only the Secretary General can remove him again.
The outcome of all this will determine Ruto's political future. What happens if the EAC Court cancels the transfer of the EAC Secretary-General and is then required to remain in office but is immediately removed by the EAC Parliament? Kenya is already losing its status as East Africa's number one country to the newly dynamic Tanzania.
What happens if the AU summit in 2025 decides against Odinga as president of the AU Commission? In principle, it is now the turn of East Africa to fill this rotating seat, which has never held the highest position in the AU, while Southern, Western, Central and Northern Africa have already expressed their opinion. But that is precisely why there is competition in East Africa for Odinga, who will turn 80 early next year. Somalia's respected former foreign minister, Fawzia Adam, for example, is causing a stir.
Odinga raised the first point last week: at Kenya's insistence, AU foreign ministers overturned the principle that men and women alternate chairing the AU Commission, which would have automatically excluded Odinga. of the career. But that doesn't mean he will prevail against Adam in the end. So will Ruto succeed with his strategy of glossing over domestic problems with foreign policy?Translated from English Dominic Johnson