Assessment of the 400 regions: Real estate prices are falling: people with average income can afford an apartment here
Real estate prices in Germany fell by an average of around ten percent last year and interest rates also fell. We show where home ownership is also affordable for people on average incomes.
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As a general rule, experts recommend spending a maximum of 30 percent of your net income on the purchase of an apartment, that is, the monthly loan payment. According to IW Cologne, an average German household has a net income of 2,120 euros per month and could therefore spend 636 euros on purchasing a property. The typical German condo is 68 square meters. So the only question that remains is in which of Germany's 400 cities and districts can you afford a typical apartment on your usual income.
To answer this, we have created an example calculation. Based on the figures from the Postbank Housing Atlas 2024 and the current purchase prices of existing apartments, we have calculated the purchase price of a 68 square meter property for each region. Additional expenses such as intermediation fees, notary fees, property registration and federal state property transfer tax are included. This figure only changed this year in Thuringia, where it fell from 6.5 to 5.0 percent.
We also assume average values for financing. This applies to the contributed capital of 25 percent of the total costs, as well as an annuity, that is, the repayment rate plus the interest rate, of 6.15 percent. We left the annuity at the same value as last year, although the average interest rate on loans has dropped from 3.75 to 3.5 percent. In practice, this doesn't change the monthly rate, but it would mean that you would have paid for an apartment after 21 years and 11 months and not after 23 years and one month.
Where people with average income can afford an apartment
With this example calculation, you, as a person with average income, could afford a condo in 104 regions. That's 11 more than last year. However, two years ago there were still 284; Although purchase prices fell last year, they are still very high in combination with rising interest rates.
Little has changed in the spatial distribution of the cheapest regions. At the top is once again the Saxon district of Vogtland, where you can get 68 square meters for an average of 71,901 euros. In our example calculation, this results in a modest monthly fee of only about 276 euros. This is well below the limit of 636 euros for average earners. There are also 18 other regions where purchase prices are below 100,000 euros. Only one of the cities is located in the former federal states: Pirmasens; The rest is distributed between Brandenburg, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia. Gera and Dessau-Roßlau are the other two cities on this list.
In addition, twelve large cities are affordable for people with average incomes. Many of them are located in or around the Ruhr area in North Rhine-Westphalia, such as Duisburg, Oberhausen, Remscheid, Wuppertal, Gelsenkirchen, Hagen, Hamm and Herne. There are also Salzgitter of Lower Saxony, Bremerhaven of Bremen, Chemnitz of Saxony and Magdeburg of Saxony-Anhalt. Chemnitz is the cheapest big city with a monthly rate of 452 euros, followed by Gelsenkirchen (476 euros), Bremerhaven (491 euros) and Salzgitter (494 euros).
These regions are over budget
On the other hand, there are 296 regions in Germany where people with average incomes cannot afford an apartment. These include 56 large cities and large areas of territory in the former federal states, as well as on the coasts and southern borders of the country. If you want to afford an apartment on a middle income, you have to buy an apartment smaller than the typical 700-square-foot unit or pay higher monthly payments in some way. This works, for example, if you do not buy the apartment alone, but together with your partner. Two earned incomes can also afford a higher monthly payment. The third alternative is to spend more than 30 percent of your net income on the loan.
However, you quickly reach your limits with the latter. It would have to invest more than half of its net income in 84 regions, including Hamburg (87 percent), Düsseldorf (70 percent), Cologne (68 percent), Frankfurt (86 percent), Stuttgart (67 percent) and Berlin (81 percent). ).
However, there are actually three regions where even that wouldn't help you. In Munich, in the nearby Miesbach district and in the Nordfriesland district of Schleswig-Holstein, which includes the expensive resort island of Sylt, monthly payments for a 68-square-meter apartment exceed the average net income. In the Bavarian capital it is 2,581 euros, in Miesbach 2,366 euros and in North Frisia 2,639 euros.
Which regions have now become (un)affordable?
16 regions that a year ago were marked in red on our map have now become affordable thanks to falling real estate prices. These include the large cities of Remscheid and Wuppertal in North Rhine-Westphalia and the medium-sized city of Neumünster in Schleswig-Holstein. The rest are rural districts spread across many federal states: from the district of Steinburg in the north to the district of Rhein-Hunsrück in the west, the district of Meißen in the east and the district of Regen in the south.
And although real estate prices in Germany have fallen on average, there are even four districts where apartments were affordable a year ago and are no longer so. The district of Neustadt an der Waldnaab in Bavaria should be considered with caution, as the data available here are very scarce. Even small changes in housing supply have a significant impact on average prices. However, the Cham district in Bavaria and the Saarbrücken and Saarpfalz-Kreis districts in Saarland also became “invaluable.” However, all four are just above the threshold of a maximum of 31 percent of average net income.
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