After the attack near Moscow, calls were made for the introduction of the death penalty. This could also help the Putin regime with mobilization.
People gather outside the site of the attack in Moscow on March 27. Photo: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
SEDAN taz | There are still no studies on how Russians assess the terrorist attack on March 22, 2024 at the Crocus Town Hall in Krasnogorsk. But for now it can be said that, in addition to natural sadness, two reactions have become visible: the growing fears of members of the opposition and the passive anger of a reactionary and inactive mass against the Ukrainian “terrorist accomplices.”
I remember as if it were yesterday the hostage taking at a school in Beslan, North Ossetia, in the early years of Vladimir Putin's government. Due to the intervention of Russian security forces, more than 300 people, mostly children, died in September 2004.
Immediately afterwards, the authorities began to organize massive demonstrations of pain and anger to avoid protests. Employees of government agencies, as well as cadets from military and police schools, were strongly requested to appear there.
I myself attended such an event on Palace Square in St. Petersburg as a correspondent for the Echo of Moscow radio station, which was disconnected in 2022 under pressure from the authorities. The introduction of the death penalty was called from the stage and the crowd responded with obedient applause. However, no corresponding changes to the law have been implemented to date.
Fear among opponents and reservists
In the Duma, many deputies are once again calling for the introduction of the death penalty, and many opposition members and reservists fear that it could soon be used against them. The authorities need this measure more and more: there is a war and the chances of saving one's life are greater in prison than on the front.
For some recruits, it makes sense to avoid the front by misbehaving or refusing military service. The threat of death could make it easier for some to be forced to risk their lives on the front lines.
But even if the death penalty is not applied, everyone now understands that a Russian prison can be a worse place than the military meat grinder near Avdiivka. This was demonstrated not only by the death of Navalny, but also by the deliberate display of torture of suspected Islamic State terrorists. For all these reasons, unlike 2004, the squares of Russian cities are empty after the last attack.
Failure of the intelligence services
Since Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine began in February 2022 and the mobilization of youth for this war, hundreds of thousands of people who did not agree with this policy have also left the country. Those left behind are intimidated by the bloody battle and atrocities in the kyiv suburb of Bucha and the city of Mariupol.
Those who believe that the massacre and the burning of Crocus City Hall were caused by the Russian authorities do not take to the streets. For the same reasons, representatives of the liberal class who believe that this is a shameful failure of the national intelligence services also remain inactive.
Because if the “services” could not protect the fans of a rock group loyal to the regime from terror, they certainly cannot protect a group of “traitors.”
Those who support the war loudly and often silently, even if they do not believe Putin's words that the Ukrainian secret services organized the terrorist attack, are still angry at their resistant neighbor. Because they still see Ukraine as an ally of ISIS.
Old acquaintance EN
This is evident from the comments on social networks. The logic goes something like this: it is Ukraine, which stubbornly defends itself, that prevents Russian state security forces and military intelligence from fighting the Islamists. It is regretted that “our armed forces” have delayed the resolution of the Ukrainian issue for so long.
In the wake of the attack, few commentators have paid attention to the fact that Moscow is very familiar with the Islamic State, which has claimed responsibility for the crime. From the beginning, IS fought against the Kremlin-aligned Assad regime in Damascus and later against Russian troops in Syria.
Furthermore, it is not impossible that the Russian intelligence services, thanks to their links with Assad, Iran, Tajikistan and even the Taliban, know the Central Asian branch of the ISKP better than the intelligence services of any other country in the world. It is evident that an exchange of operational information about the common enemy is taking place between Moscow and these autocracies.
It is also not the first time that the Kremlin has accused kyiv of supporting Islamist extremism and preparing heinous crimes. For example, on October 11, 2023, the head of the Russian domestic intelligence agency FSB, Alexander Bortnikov, stated at a meeting of the Council of Heads of Security Agencies and Special Services: “We have reliable information that ISIS and people like-minded people are part of the units of Chechens and Crimean Tatars fighting against us. They also belong to sabotage and reconnaissance groups sent to Russia to carry out sabotage and terrorist attacks.”
Self-proclaimed experts
These words have received a lively response from self-proclaimed experts who have carefully analyzed the content of the Russian Wikipedia page “ISKP (ISIS-K)” and have summarized it on social networks as follows: “It is clear that the CIA not only … controls the Kiev Reconnaissance Headquarters (GUR), but also the Islamic State. Finally, Wilayat Khorasan, i.e. h. “ISKP has done nothing against the United States in recent years, but it is sowing death and ruin in our land and among our Islamic allies.”
After the terrorist attack, those who do not want another wave of mobilization are unlikely to demonstrate, although rumors persist throughout the country that taxes will soon be raised to finance the war. Given that there were hardly any protests on the streets when hundreds of thousands of people were sent to the Ukrainian battlefields and therefore to death or disability, this is certainly not to be expected now that belts may have to be tightened.
Sources in Russian army units fighting on Ukrainian soil say the mantra from political officers to soldiers in recent months has always been: “Be patient, this will soon be over.”
Furthermore, if the current “special military operation” were officially called “war” or, which is not excluded, “anti-terrorist operation”, it will be easier to convince recruits to reap the fruits of the long-awaited, if not victory. which is already imminent.
From Russian: Barbara Oertel
Alejandro Gogun He is a military historian and lives in Berlin.