DThe situation is serious and Germany is not prepared for it. The Ukrainian summer offensive failed. Russia is conscripting more and more soldiers and, according to observers, it is now easily circumventing Western sanctions. The Bundeswehr is there, if not naked, then at most in swimming shorts. And Donald Trump is preparing to become the Republican presidential candidate and become the American president again at the beginning of next year. If that happens, things could get tight for Ukraine and NATO.
Trump has often expressed contempt for the alliance, calling it “dispensable” years ago. He has announced that he will no longer supply weapons to Ukraine if he wins the election. If he gets serious about this, Germany and other allies would have to step in for military equipment worth around 40 billion euros. Artillery shells in particular have so far only been able to produce sufficient quantities of artillery shells. If Europe fails to compensate for the delivery failures, Ukraine risks running out of ammunition. In the worst case scenario, she would lose the war. And then a well-equipped and war-tested Russian army would face a crumbling NATO. Europe would be on its own without American protection. It should be able to deter Russia itself from war.