Moscow attack could benefit Vladimir Putin, says Kremlin expert Catherine Belton. If the West turns the corner, its throne could falter.
Like a little figure from the Wizard of Oz: Vladimir Putin Photo: Prokofyev/Itar Tass/imago
Laborable day: Mrs. Belton, the terrorist attack in Moscow took place a few days ago. Could it harm Vladimir Putin, or even benefit him?
Catherine Belton: Putin and his security allies are pointing the finger at Ukraine and the West; Now it all depends on whether they can maintain this narrative. In his first two terms, Putin's tactic was to blame the West for terrorist attacks. Especially after the Beslan hostage crisis in 2004, he accused Western forces who wanted to separate parts of Russia of being behind the attack. These stories have always helped him strengthen the power of his security services and eliminate all opposition in the political system. There is a good chance that he could successfully use these methods again and use the attack to further incite the country against Ukraine and the West. His control over the media is incredibly strong, and we are now likely to see the Putin regime take even more aggressive measures against Ukraine… and possibly the West.
In the bombings of residential buildings in Russia in 1999, there were clear indications that the FSB secret service was involved. This time at least the FSB should have been warned. How do you assess the failures of the security authorities?
Many questions still remain about how this attack could have occurred and why security authorities were not alert despite being so clearly warned. It is clear that the Islamic State does not represent a new threat to Russia. We do not know how the four alleged direct perpetrators managed to cause so much damage. Where were the police? Did she just run away? And why didn't the four alleged perpetrators separate, but instead drove to the border together in a car? That would be very strange behavior. Something doesn't add up.
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After the electoral farce in Russia, Putin presented himself as the big winner and the disruptive actions were barely noticed. Did Putin also emerge stronger from the “elections”?
Catherine Belton: For Putin, the so-called elections were important as a seal or certificate of his legitimacy. He thinks the absurdly high score makes him stronger. And I think he really believes that this support is real. However, in Western eyes, this huge figure only underlines the magnitude of the falsifications that have taken place. The independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta It is estimated that 31.6 million fraudulent votes – almost half of the total – were included in the recount. This supposed victory is, however, a fragile victory and is far from the resounding victory that it seeks to present.
When it comes to support for Ukraine, Western unity appears to be crumbling. Does Putin now have the West where he would like it to be?
No not yet. The problem child is, of course, the United States. We had this huge blockage in Congress on approving more aid to Ukraine. Since the war began, support for Ukraine among the Republican Party's rank and file has declined significantly. The far-right MAGA wing is gaining influence, which plays into Putin's hands. But the big test is yet to come with the US elections. As for Europe, I see it differently: it was a firm decision by President Macron and the EU Commission to continue aid to Ukraine and strive to build Europe's own defense industry. Apart from some mistakes by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the EU is reasonably united behind Ukraine.
What do you criticize about the “slips”?
The Chancellor hesitates. He apparently fears that the deployment of the Taurus cruise missiles could cause an escalation. However, the United Kingdom and France have sent similar long-range missiles to Ukraine and nothing has happened. There seems to be a blockage in the Chancellor's head. By doing so, he is endangering Europe, because this hesitation allows Putin to gain the upper hand in Ukraine. Intelligence reports now assume that Russia could attack the Baltics as early as 2026.
Do you believe that Russia's military defeat is possible?
That depends on how you define defeat. There was a time about a year ago when Putin's throne was shaking, when Russia was militarily weak and Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning a coup. There is still a possibility of weakening Russia militarily in this way. But only if the West turns the corner and allows Ukraine to not only defend itself, but actually launch a significant military attack on the front lines. But the front line is more than 1,000 kilometers long. So it was kind of crazy that the United States only adequately equipped 12 brigades last year. Without air support, without F-16s, it was impossible for Ukraine to make significant progress. The West has to rethink, the arms industry has to produce more.
Meanwhile, Putin's arms industry is flourishing.
Exactly. But inflation in Russia is rising. If the Russian economy comes under increasing pressure, if Putin's war economy no longer works, there could come a time next year when Ukraine's time comes… and it can strike again.
You spoke of a new European security architecture. Regarding the rise of populists: to what extent does it depend on political developments?
The performance of the AfD in the 2025 federal elections in Germany and of Marine Le Pen in the 2027 presidential elections in France will be crucial. But first we have European elections in June. Russia is trying to boost votes for far-right parties in France, Germany, other European countries and the United States and is relying on disinformation campaigns. Our research for Washington Post have shown that the Kremlin is using agents in the West, such as former National Front politician Jean-Luc Schaffhauser, who helped arrange loans for Le Pen's party in the past. He is currently working on drawing up a list of far-right European leaders for the European Parliament elections. If Russia manages to destabilize the political order in Europe so that Russia-friendly parties gain power, there will be no common European defense industry. We must be clear that Russia will do everything possible to achieve this goal.
In 2023 you wrote about Sahra Wagenknecht's connections to Russia and the Kremlin's strategy to strengthen left- and right-wing populist parties in Germany in order to enable a crossed front. Now Wagenknecht has her own party of hers. Is this what the Kremlin wants?
I think it is a kind of wishful thinking on the part of the Kremlin that there could be a collaboration between the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance and the AfD. Most AfD members I spoke to said this was not really possible due to Wagenknecht's political agenda. However, an AfD deputy, Peter Bystron, explained that this alliance already existed among lateral thinkers during the protests against pandemic measures and would only have to be reactivated with a new crisis. Bystron has good connections in Russia, his wife is a friend of Sergei Lavrov and she brags about his good relationship with Steve Bannon.
Can you tell us about the Kremlin's propaganda department? You recently said that Putin's confidant Sergei Kirilenko now plays a crucial role in that area.
Kirilenko is the first deputy head of the Kremlin. His job was to oversee internal policy; for example, ensuring that the elections in Russia went according to the Kremlin's wishes. After the channels Russia Today and Sputnik were banned in the EU, he took on more responsibilities in the propaganda department. With his team he is responsible for monitoring the media and political environment in European countries, especially France and Germany. They launch campaigns on social networks to influence public opinion against Ukraine. Many in the West have long considered Kirilenko a liberal, just as Putin was in his early days. What fatal errors!
Unelectable Russian presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin recently suggested that he still believes it is possible to reform Russia from within.
It would be possible to reform Russia from within if the Kremlin had allowed Nadezhdin to run for president. But if even he is excluded from the race as a candidate, that is not realistic. Nadezhdin says he would get 30 to 35 percent support from the Russian population with his anti-war agenda. No wonder the Kremlin was scared.
What happens if Donald Trump wins the US elections?
I wouldn't even dare think about that, because Trump has already made it very clear that he could dissolve NATO if he believes certain members are not paying enough dues. We don't know what's happening. Will Trump open the door for Putin to invade the Baltic countries? It is very important that European governments prepare for this situation.
You worked in Moscow for a long time. You saw Putin there often…
…I only met him at the press conferences. I arrived in Moscow in 1998, when he was head of the FSB secret service. For my book “Putin's Network” I spoke with many people very close to him.
How did you perceive it then?
Like a little Wizard of Oz figure with this huge state machine and an entourage around him. And he's the little guy hiding behind a curtain and controlling this machine and trying to scare people. But you always have to count on him, his instinct and knowledge of details is incredible. He is a tactician, although not a good strategist. In reality, he is a small and narrow-minded man. He may have an inferiority complex, but status issues are very important to Putin.
When is it weak?
We have seen that sometimes in crises he was not in control of the situation. The first time was in August 2000, when the Kursk sank. Then Putin disappeared for a few days and just didn't want to deal with it. After the Prigozhin mutiny we saw it very clearly again. Initially there were no orders from the Kremlin and Putin was completely paralyzed. And now, after the Moscow attack, it took him another 19 hours to react.
The most popular opposition politician, Alexei Navalny, has died. Do you think the team of Navalny and Yulia Navalnaya will be able to take on their role?
We will have to wait and see what happens next with the Russian opposition, but it seems clear that Putin does not want to leave anything to chance. Navalny's former chief of staff, Leonid Volkov, was just attacked with a hammer in Lithuania. So this pressure will clearly continue.
Do you really feel safe in the UK?
There were lawsuits against my book. Obviously this wouldn't have happened if it hadn't really upset some people, but they chose the legal route. I think I am not a prominent person at all, not like these brave political activists.