Some of Iran's drones and missiles have been intercepted by Jordan's air force. But Amman's relationship with Israel remains strained, according to one expert.
Jordan at the center of the conflict: the sky over the capital Amman on Sunday night Photo: Reuters
Sunday night was also extremely tense in Jordan. Stranded passengers sat outside the closed gates of Queen Alia Airport for hours after the airspace was closed to civilian traffic from 11 p.m. Outside, burning missiles continued to light up the sky. The Jordanian government confirmed Monday morning that it had “intercepted foreign objects in Jordanian airspace to protect citizens and residential areas,” according to state news agency Petra. What does this mean, given months of anti-Israel rhetoric and Iran's warning that Jordan could be “the next target” if it interferes with the attack?
taz: Mr. Abu-Dalbouh, Jordan borders Israel and the West Bank, as well as Syria and Iraq, Iran's neighbor. So the kingdom is literally in the middle of the conflict.
Born in 1967, he is a professor of International Relations at the University of Jordan in Amman.
Walid Abu Dalbouh: I would say that Jordanian geopolitics plays a very important role in the political and military developments in the region. Your geographic location can be an advantage, but it can also be counterproductive. Depending on the scenario, airstrikes from Israel to Iran or from Iran to Israel could be seen over Jordanian skies. This puts a lot of pressure on Jordan. That is, how can the country maintain its security and sovereignty and at the same time address them at the political level.
So your response, shooting down Iranian drones, was primarily about security and sovereignty? Or a signal to Iran?
This is about Jordan's sovereignty. And possibly also about security. Jordanian airspace must not be violated. But Jordan is very close to the Western side. There are two American military bases here. If Jordan has to make a decision, in case of doubt it will be closer to the West. But Jordan already has enough to worry about with Shiite groups in the north of the country and drug smuggling.
They refer to the smuggling of weapons and drugs from Syria, involving militias allegedly supported by Iran, which Iran denies. And Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah, which reportedly killed three American soldiers in Jordan in January.
These problems are not going away anytime soon and may increase in the near future. That is why Jordan is trying to put itself in a neutral position in the growing escalations between Iran and the Western side.
Jordan also finds itself in a complex political situation: it is an ally of the West, but it also has strong ties with the Palestinian population. Many Jordanians are of Palestinian origin.
From the beginning, Jordan advocated a peaceful solution to the conflict based on the UN resolution. But there has been a lot of pressure on decision-makers to cancel the peace deal with Israel. They are increasing because many civilians are dying in Gaza. Therefore, the government is in a very difficult situation. It is about how it can maintain the balance between the demands of citizens and what relates to the political relationship with Israel. That is the dilemma.
How seriously should Iran's threats be taken?
It was the first time missiles were fired from Iranian soil. But overall it wasn't particularly threatening. One reason could be that Iran had to hit back to save face. But I don't think both sides really want to escalate the situation. And US President Biden then recommended that Israel not counterattack. But we cannot know how the situation will evolve in the future.