German skepticism about electric cars endangers more jobs than the end of combustion engines

Anyone following the diesel debate in Germany might think that die-hard diesel engine advocates don't know that only about one percent of all new cars in China are powered by a diesel engine. In the US, Brazil, India and most European countries, almost all private customers drive gasoline or electric cars.

The data reveals a lot about global rejection of the campaign, which some Germans are promoting as a supposed location issue. “Save diesel!” they demand. “What's the point?” the world responds. “No one needs it.”

The debate illustrates how Germany is botching the electric transition and threatening to drive its important auto industry into collapse. While some link diesel with the future of the automotive industry, they bury it in the market of the real future: electric mobility. This hurts automakers, the job market, and the future of the company's location.

Cars like those of the previous decade and a notorious uncertainty

China, the US and the EU, by far the most important automobile markets in the world, are betting on electric cars. A special German approach would not change the fact that, by mid-century at the latest, the gasoline engine will probably play a supporting role in the powertrain package similar to that played by the diesel today. The latter is likely to almost completely disappear from the automobile market within a few years.

VW has German e-skepticismbmw and Mercedes-Benz However, already condemned to secondary roles in the electric car market:

1. The first version of VW's hopeful ID.3, presented as a great success, looked like a Tesla of the last decade.

2. Mercedes installed a bench in the back of its technically impressive EQS luxury model, with very little legroom for rich Chinese who like to have a chauffeur.

3. Customers and experts liked Skoda's sister model of the VW ID.4 more than the Wolfsburg version, although in reality the Czechs make inexpensive basic models in the world of the VW brand.

The once confident German manufacturers look like insecure beginners, because in reality they are when it comes to electric cars.

The consequences put jobs at risk. Across the country, suppliers that invested early in the electric transition are struggling to survive in the face of disappointing electric car sales. Tens of thousands of jobs are already at risk. If electronic change in this country remains mediocre, it will be just the beginning.

Electronic change inevitable and car manufacturers demand help

Surprisingly, even car manufacturers are defending themselves against the supposed “rescue attempts” of combustion engines and the electric transition. VW works council head Daniela Cavallo described a delay in the electric transition and a move away from the combustion engine Mirror as a “threat to the entire economy.”

In any case, electric mobility is becoming more established, says Achim Dietrich, chairman of the works council of supplier ZF Friedrichshafen. If Germany no longer makes the best cars, another country will.

The image of the forced E-turn from above does not match reality. Automakers are more likely to ask politicians for help. But the policy is failing.

More about the subject: Biden wants more electric cars: how the end of combustion engines affects German manufacturers

Uncertainty, funding stoppage and changes over the weekend

On a Friday in December, the federal government informed those interested in German electric cars that from Monday they would stop granting thousands of euros in bonuses that all of them had firmly planned from Monday: under the pressure of the loss of a special home. funds, the traffic light canceled a subsidy of 4,500 euros per new electric car over the weekend, as if the confidence of buyers did not matter to them.

Since then, sales of electric cars have decreased noticeably. Most manufacturers compensate for the state premium through price reductions. The final price for drivers remains the same. However, the policy further unsettled consumers who were already nervous about technological change.

A dilemma with consequences. According to surveys, the majority of Germans are willing to buy an electric car, but doubt the future safety of current batteries and drives. If no one knows whether technological advances will make their expensive electric cars obsolete as quickly as iPhones and laptops, the added uncertainty over financing will kill any desire to buy. Manufacturers are wondering how to plan production capacity when the government denies them a reliable market environment.

Slow Germans and lucrative Chinese

Disruptive fires benefit Chinese manufacturers. In polls, they recently increased their popularity in just a few months. About half of Germans can already imagine buying an electric car from the Middle Kingdom.

Because the Chinese, driven by state investors, produce millions more vehicles in their country than they can sell, BYD remains, Geely and NIO have enough cars left over that they are launching at low prices on the European market. Thanks to lower manufacturing costs, they make profits even with competitive prices.

The Chinese have gone ahead in terms of price advantages: BYD plans to soon launch a small electric car on the market in this country for about 20,000 euros. VW has announced a similar model for 2027, three years later. BMW, Mercedes and VW, luxury brand Audi, have not announced plans.

At a time when high prices deter many interested parties from purchasing electric cars, German automakers are leaving the field to foreign manufacturers, especially when it comes to entry-level models that link customers to the brands they offer. long term.

New technology and market leader under pressure

German automakers continue to post record profits despite headwinds. They have earned the trust of many customers over decades of reliability, built a global network of workshops, and have more experience in high-quality production processes than any other manufacturer. Under normal circumstances, an almost impregnable market position.

But the technical change is shaking even the safest positions in the market. Instead of gap dimensions and long-lasting gasoline engines, customers now pay attention to software and autonomy. VW, BMW and Mercedes remain mediocre in these categories.

The old market leaders can survive shocks like this, but they don't have to: Germans buy their smartphones from other manufacturers in addition to their first mobile phones, their computers from manufacturers other than the previous ones, their typewriters and your digital cameras from other manufacturers than the above. your old SLRs. Quite often, innovations topple market leaders because they rest on their laurels for too long.

The 1970s demonstrated how quickly dominance changes in the automobile industry. When American manufacturers, long the industry leaders, continued to build fuel-efficient road vehicles despite the oil crisis and rising gasoline prices, customers switched to more economical models.

If the Germans want to maintain the leadership position they have achieved since then instead of repeating the mistakes of the Americans, everything indicates that they should not rest on their laurels in the automobile industry either. Above all, this means: welcoming the electronic transition as a friend instead of fighting it as an enemy.