The soft outcome of the Iranian missile attacks shows that Israel needs help from other states. The country should not put them in danger.
Iran's retaliatory strike against Israel creates clarity in the region, but probably not in the way the Islamic Republic had envisioned. Tehran is said to have sent more than 300 rockets and drones into Israel, of which 99 percent were shot down, according to the Israeli military. Lebanon's Hezbollah also sent projectiles in a coordinated manner, but the outcome of the night was much less terrible than many feared: few wounded, no dead.
Now it could be argued that Iran simply wanted to test whether Israel's defense systems could withstand an attack in order to increase the dose of fire in the next attack. But from the Iranian perspective, a central problem remains: Israel is well equipped against ranged attacks, and its “Arrow” anti-aircraft system is designed exactly for this purpose. And Israel's defense has much more time to prepare for attacks from Iran than for attacks by Iran-allied militias from southern Lebanon or the Gaza Strip.
Not surprisingly, Iran announced on Sunday that if there was an Israeli counterattack, it would be forced to launch an even tougher counterattack. But only if.” The Islamic Republic also seems to be aware that an air war with Israel would be a costly and ineffective affair. That's the first idea.
The second: Israel did not defend itself on Sunday night. The United States, Britain and neighboring Jordan shot down drones and missiles. Saudi Arabia is also said to have participated in the defense of Israel. Relations between Israel and its Western allies, as well as its friendly Arab neighbors, have cooled dramatically recently due to Israel's bitter war against Hamas in Gaza.
Arab states feel pressure from mullahs
But both Saudi Arabia and Jordan – whose northern border with Syria has an Iran-friendly regime and Iranian-funded militias – are feeling the pressure from Tehran. And remember that they benefit from Israel's fight against the mullahs and that there is great common ground in opposing Iran and its allied militias (in the case of Saudi Arabia, especially the Houthi militia in Yemen).
For Israel, this will hopefully lead to a third realization: alienating its allies one after another, pandering to the country's far right and its settlement fantasies is a bad strategy. Showing goodwill in distributing aid and protecting civilians in Gaza is certainly helpful in maintaining the necessary alliances.